could be activating the groups they've been involved in before. very easy in this moment to lay on the couch and curl in the fetal position and that's powerful if the harris, people working for kamala harris can think about what they can do to stand up for people's rights and for climate change and for women's rights, then other people can also do the same thing. i want to thank you all for staying up late with me and help people watching digest a big piece of news that's going to be digested throughout the course of the day. the big breaking news at this hour, donald trump is the president elect of the united states. whole "morning joe" team is standing by. pick up our coverage right now.

♪♪ a movement like nobody's ever seen before. and frankly this was i believe the greatest political movement of all time. there's never been anything like in this country and maybe beyond. it's going to reach a new level of importance because we're going to help our country heal. help our country heal. we have a country that needs help and needs help very badly. we're going on fix our borders. we're going to fix everything about our country. we made history for a reason

tonight. and the reason is going to be just that. we overcome obstacles that nobody thought possible. it's now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political -- look what happened. is this crazy? but it's political victory that our country is never seen before, nothing like this. i want to thank the american people for extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president. it's time to put the divisions of the past four years behind us. it's time to unite and we'll try, we'll try. we have to try and it's going to happen. success will bring us together. i've seen that. i saw that in the first term when we became more and more

successful. people started coming together. success is going to bring us together. and we're going to start by all putting america first. we have to put our country first at least for a period of time. we have to fix it. because together we truly can make america great again for all americans. i want to thank you. i won't let you down. america's future will be bigger, bolder, richerer, safer, and stronger than it's mp been before. >> this morning, donald trump has secured a second presidential term. moments ago, nbc news projected he won the state of wisconsin giving him the electoral votes needed for victory. he's also leading the popular vote. as well.

it's the third battleground state he flipped after winning georgia and pennsylvania. the races in arizona, michigan and nevada are still too close to call. vice president kamala harris hasn't made a statement about the race. the crowd at her howard university watch party was asked to go home shortly before 1:00 a.m. a co-chair of the harris/walz campaign saying the vice president wouldn't speak until later today. lot to go through, lots of questions this morning. joe, we'll start with your take. >> so much to go through, so many questions. i come on to the set and willie said, hey, by the way, we were talking about the historic nature of this sweep, and willie said, you know, he only lost illinois by four points. >> four points. >> new jersey, by five. you talk about -- we talked

about a red wave two years ago that never material ized. i got to say this is the biggest red wave i've seen since ronald reagan's 49-state victory in 1984, every republican across the country improved. >> donald trump is on track to sweep the seven battleground states, three outstanding. we'll see how those go. he did better in every county where the hope of the harris campaign she would make up ground on joe biden's suburbs. donald trump did better. the gender gap wasn't nearly as wide as the harris campaign needed it to and latino men came out in force for donald trump. >> what a huge difference that made. just part of the stunning outcome, i mean, america first of all, is more to the right, even going back to reagan years

and donald trump won in dominating fashion, but he did that along with other republican candidates in the senate races and the house races. they're likely to dominate all branches of government for the next several years. he not only broke out through that hard ceiling of 47%, 48%, think about this. he became only the second republican to win a majority of the popular vote since 1988, in 36 years. and he did so after a week of polls most noticeably, after the des moines register polls showing harris making inroads on the type of voters that would swing the battleground states, the opposite ended being the

case. with expectations rising in the harris camp in the final days of the campaign, historic ground game, when you look at the depth of it and the reach of it, this race still ended up being over before it began. jonathan lemire, again, the scope and scale of this victory is sweeping. and we can focus, by the way, we can focus on donald trump. if we'd like, but this goes far beyond donald trump. make no mistake, his victory again, historic, but you look at republicans across the nation, you look at how handily they're winning states, you look at illinois. four-point margin, illinois. a five-point margin, new jersey? this is democratic party that has been just wiped out this morning. >> yes, republicans steamrolled.

they've captured the senate. the house is up for grabs. donald trump a unified republican washington, d.c., when he takes office. this is stunning. it was over late last night, early this morning with the official call. the iowa poll that so many democrats hung so much hope on in recent days, harris up three points, right now the margin in iowa is 14 points. 16 or 17-point miss there. there was not this surge of voters making late to harris and for donald trump it must be said, a president impeached twice, botched the handling of the pandemic, he faced four criminal cases, he inspired january 6th and he won anyway and now he'll return to office with more guardrails internally, encouragement from moscow and

other foreign adversaries and a supreme court that said his power is largely unchecked. >> historians will look back on those trials, sitting in there and fed into his victimhood and that will be seen, those trials where he's sitting in court all day, seen as an kind of contribution, no trials this summer a defining moment in this campaign. >> historians will be grappling with a lot of questions going forward, how someone who is a convicted -- first-ever convicted former president could win in this fashion, we talked about the extraordinarily for a lot of people, offensive performance of donald trump in these last two things, the things he said and did, how can

this man the way he's performing in the closing days of the campaign, how can this guy get elected? the enemy within, the various things that provoked john kelly to come out and speak. it didn't matter. that will be a question for psychologists, socialists, historians, political scientists for a long time. for a lot of people in the country it's unthinkable that donald trump, he could improve his performance from the past. but he did. i think the other question we now are going to be grappling with that's quite clear, we've had consistent polling that has had this race effectively a tie, the polling, the end polling average, donald trump in a lot

of these states was at 47%, 48%, consistent with the notion that he had the ceiling, never above 47% before, it looks like these battleground states, a 3% polling miss in aggregate. four-point polling misaggregate. the polling industry right now public and private has now in three successful elections missed donald trump support in america by substantial numbers. and i'll say, finally, the thing that you heard from in the harris campaign, in the blue wall states, was if the numbers are right, meaning the numbers in public and their own numbers, it's rally a tie they'd say, we think our ground game will help us win. those numbers were wrong. hey, we could be looking at another 2020 and 2016 trump

support is understated. if that's the case he could win -- >> this was the third time. this was the third time in a row as you said that donald trump support was understated especially in the upper midwest states. mika, you go through it, you look at the final weeks of the campaign, it was not only the public polling which most campaigns dismiss, but it was actually the polling inside the harris camp they the last week were growing more confident because the numbers they were seeing, the only people who had polls that ended up being right from the beginning were the trump people. they had this confidence. they were overconfident. their numbers weren't matching. the private numbers of harris weren't matching the public numbers, they had the right numbers all along. we're getting more votes from

hispanic men, we're getting more votes from black men, we'll do better. they were never internally, they were never worried, until the ann seltzer poll. >> the issue of abortion, florida's different. some states voted against these bans. but voted for the person who's the reason for them. >> florida was 57% for abortion rights. that's right. >> claire me mccaskill. >> donald trump knows our country better than we do. i think he figured out that anger and frankly fear were way more powerful than appealing to people's better angles.

anger and peer were going to work in this election. whether you're afraid of immigrants or afraid of people who are trans he figured that out and i think we all thought everyone's better angels would prevail, the angels went out since donald trump came down the escalator and haven't returned. by the way, his persecution, majority of america believes he was persecuted not prosecuted. >> right. >> there's no question that our grip on hey, we got to make those same rules apply to every american, no matter who you are, turns out that's not true. america believed, majority of americans believed he was a victim in those prosecutions, not a prerp traitor and i think

that's something that will be talked for a long time. books will be written about. assassination attempt helped. where he made up the most ground, first with hispanic voters, knowing how he's talked about hispanic people in this campaign, let that sit for a moment, the second one was in fact in urban areas, he did much better, that was the second area he did much better and the last one was young voters. the democratic party was so sure that young people would reject this guy because they see a different america than he does, turns out he appealed to their grievance and their anger and their fear just as much as he was appealing to white folks in rural america that aren't college educated. >> the tragic assassination

attempt, where he actually got up, waved to the crowd and made people think at the milwaukee convention the next week, hey, that's our guy, he's tougher, stronger, he's still standing up, holding his fist to the crowd and time and time again in less drmic ways walk out the courthouse, he held a press conference, it's a witch hunt. you talked to republicans who were going to run against him, they'd say, these trials are just making him stronger. >> it appears they did. his voters believe that he's a victim. they believe that he carries their grievance with him and now back to the white house whether it's generals coming out and calling him a fascist. elites coming out for kamala

harris. he withstood it out. they didn't like that. it was him against the world. it's an argument they believe in. the economy, was the number one issue for trump voters. so for all the noise and everything we've talked about, all these important issues voters said groceries cost too much. rent is too high. i believe donald trump will do something to change that. number one issue for trump voters last night. the president of the national action network, the reverend al sharpton. you were with the harris campaign last night, obviously as the night went on things became more and more grim for them, ending with shock this morning as this race was called for donald trump. >> probably shock would be the word for many at the howard university party and then

disbelief, i think also what we've got to deal with, you're correct, when you say the economy was a weight on a lot of the voters around the country and a distorted view of the economy. let's remember, donald trump is an expert promoter, able to get a lot of myths across the table that weren't true. not well promoted on the other side. we have to deal with the issue of race and gender. there was a lot of gender bias in this. there was a loft race bias in this and i think that we thought a lot of voters were more progressive in those areas than they were, when you have the dobbs decision and you see this kind of vote anyway with the person who put the three justices on the supreme court you have to ask yourself -- are we fooling ourselves saying that americans are further down the

road toward dealing with gender bias and race bias than we thought? so, i'd say this, though, donald trump i've known a long time, he'll self-destruct, the problem is not trump, those who can be appealed to in this way and how we can bring this country together we can't do it by being january 6th. we'll deal with this in a dig any fied way and try to put the pieces together. we've lost a battle, the war is not over. >> you talk about gender and race. let's talk about race, donald trump faired very well with hispanic voters, especially hispanic men, the numbers are coming in still a little early, i think he did better with black men than was expected in the past.

and what do you think pushed that? especially with the hispanic voters going for donald trump as much as they did, because that made a big difference. >> i think that a lot of it he was able to sell at lot of hispanic voters that immigration was a threat to them people coming across the border was a threat to them. we've got to be honest among hispanic men and black men, there's a lot of misogyny, we got to deal with the reality that he appealed to this whole false macho thing, that some black men and some latino men went for, i think we cannot sit around just bedwetting, we got to deal with the reality and we got to deal with the situation as it is in our communities. >> at some point, democrats are

going to have to confront some realities that they haven't wanted to confront in the past, past issues on the border, took them too long to confront that. transgender inmate ad that ran 30,000 time that the democrats refused to respond to despite the fact it was trump's own policy. thought it might -- maybe they were too woke to respond to a false ad and afraid they'd be attacked by their own base. so many questions for the democrats to answer but one of them the one that i just saw, is that 45% of hispanics voted for donald trump. >> 45%. >> george w. bush, when george w. bush got 44% of the vote in

2004 it sent shock waves, if you look at this, if you look at younger voters, you look at -- we've been talking about a new republican party, this morning this is about as bleak as any time for democrats since the so-called 1984 san francisco democrats. it's time for the democrats to take a good long hard look at how this happened and if they just say trump bad, democrats virtuous. this is so widespread. this about the democratic party and be disconnected. >> donald trump did the same with black men as he did in 2020. so really look toward latino men where that number has gone way

up for donald in his favor, talking about new jersey a state that kamala won by only five points and steve was just breaking down how it was that close, hudson county, cities, heavy latino populations and they went for donald trump and that's something the democratic party really needs to take a long look in. let's bring in peter alexander. and vaughn hillyard with the trump campaign. vaughn, we'll begin with you. donald trump returning to the white house, what are we hearing from him. >> reporter: this is for donald trump a republican party and now a country that's given a mandate to go and execute on the policies that he was quite explicit he intends to bring to washington come 2025. that's tariffs of 20% to 30% on all goods. installing robert f. kennedy to

oversee healthcare policy. mass deportation program. he's repeatedly said he learned from his first administration. this time around he said he won't make the same mistake again, he'll look for loyal allies to install in the top capacities in his white house here, i'm told by a source who's with the campaign they're already eyeing a potential rally soon for donald trump to go back on the road. you guys said it here for nine years we've covered the maga movement and for nine years we've traveled around this country watching millions of americans buy into the idea of fake press, of stolen elections, of the deep state. and we've watched donald trump egg expressly over the last

month, that donald trump was right about everything, donald trump will fix it. voters have suggested they believe donald trump is the best person to go inside of the white house and use the executive authority to make good for their lives and now the transition process will begin here in palm beach imminently. >> all right, vaughn, thank you. peter alexander in washington, d.c., standing by on vice president harris, when do we expect to hear from her, peter? >> reporter: well, mika, we anticipate we'll hear from her later today. this afternoon, she's expected to speak at howard university where several thousand of her supporters had arrived last night they were joyful and optimistic. conversations in and around the campaign they felt like they had the traject/on their side. week ago things seemed pretty tight, now understand they felt

pretty optimistic going into the night. that quickly evaporated. one state after another falling into donald trump. some people embracing one another. to give you a chance of the feel there there was a party for donors in washington, d.c., harris donors, described to us being like a funeral as the returns came in, they ultimately muted the screen and turned music on to try to cheer folks up. a real reckoning for democrats right now, she clearly underperformed with key demographics and in so many critical counties and she faced some real headwinds to be very clear. two-thirds of americans saying they believe that state of the country right now, they're dissatisfied with it, angry

about it, donald trump won by a large margin, two-thirds of americans say the economy was either not so good or that it was poor right now, a real frustration not just about kamala harris but by the biden/harris administration and the direction of the economy as they went to bed last evening we did hear from the campaign chairman saying that the blue wall state remain their clearest path. as they wake up this morning it's a very different situation. >> thank you very much, peter alexander. >> by the way, that iowa polling, iowa number, 13 points. >> staggering. >> 13 points. she was off ten points. it's crazy. and again, polls as soon, polls are broken. and you know, two quick things before we get too far into this,

i think kamala harris hit her marks. i think most everybody that saw her campaign thought that she far exceeded expectations and the loss was less about the campaign she ran and more about where americans were and what they wanted in their leadership. you know, one or two stumbles, we talked about an ad but she outdebated him. she went everywhere, on shows she should have gone on. people start like second-guessing kamala, if she used this verb or instead of that, no. she left it all on the stage. she worked hard. by the way, i remember in 2012 one of romney's top person calling me, joe, the last event in pennsylvania we got 30,000 people there it's dp doing be

landslide. we saw the her crowds and then we saw his crowds at the end. let us hear forth, put it in stone. if we can hereforth discount crowd sizes as an indicator of who's going to win a presidential election because this year it didn't matter at all. >> yeah, for sure. >> lot of things to say. to start with, you know, i remember that romney event in 2012, at the end of the 2012 election, republicans were absolutely convinced there was no question that mitt romney was going to beat barack obama. in 2016, democrats were exactly in same place when it came to hillary clinton and at the end of this campaign, democrats got to that with kamala harris.

things happen when you think you have the wind at the back. democrats in 2016 and democrats in 2024. an obvious throughout, more obvious as we get further away from it, the degree of difficulty of the situation she was put in was higher than anything i've seen in my entire time. she was dropped into the presidential race in august of the election year and asked to become the nominee when she was still a broadly unknown figure. she didn't have the opportunity of getting, doing multiple televised debates. she had to do two things in three months. trump had to run to finish line. she had to run to finish line while she was baking the cake or

do a cross word puzzle at the same time. you just need to be in the race. she was trying to introduce herself while trying to beat donald trump. she raised an insane amount of time, the convention was a success, her speech was a success, she crushed him in debate. she hit her marks. the fundamental question is, she was the sitting vice president for a president who had been -- his approval rating hovering between 38% and 41% for two years. no one in history of the country have overcome those headwinds.

wrong track, 75%. i can argue all day that americans have misassess the economy. they think the country is on the wrong track and they didn't approve of the biden years. she had that weight hanging on her, when we talk about this the debate in the party will be, going to people in joe biden's world, will say he should never have quit, he would have beat donald trump, this is all his fault, he should have gotten out of the midterms in 2022. >> that's what historians are going to say. >> but we'll have a fierce debate about that. >> we have to go to break, because steve kornacki is standing by with data at the big

board. he has been up all night. very interesting. plus, we're tracking how wall street's reacting to wall street's victory. street's victory. i think pretty k prettyhrough this and see what's behind ♪ well.'cause i'm only human street's victory. i think pretty k prettyhrough this an after all ♪ behind ♪ ♪ i'm only human after all ♪ ♪ oh, some people got the real problem ♪ ♪ some people out of luck ♪

lot of questions want went

down in this presidential election and the house and senate. joining us now is steve kornacki at the big board. steve, where to begin. >> yeah, where to begin, i happen to be in pennsylvania right now, you can see here, trump winning this thing, you know, by two points in pennsylvania, what key this, couple things jump out to me that spill over to national story line, first of all, you talk about suburbs, the suburbs in the trumper ra they've become more democratic especially suburbs with high concentrations with college degrees and higher incomes, the collar counties around philly. trump in pennsylvania and other key battleground states. montgomery county, this is the biggest of the philadelphia collar countries, it fits the description i was just giving you, driving up bigger and

bigger margins. they came into tonight thinking and banking that would continue. in 2020 trump won mont got -- biden won montgomery by 26 points. harris wins it, the margin comes down by four points. democrats were looking at this it's going to go north, close to 30%, something like that, we saw this in montgomery, we saw this in chester, delaware county, other collar counties we saw this in other states, these big suburban areas, that stayed blue they didn't get bluer this time around. trump stopped the slide in places like that. meanwhile, in pennsylvania, something else, too, i've been saying i think the coalition trump assembled here, tonight it became a much more diverse blue collar coalition. what am i talking about there, a place like luzerne county, this

is where hazelton, pennsylvania, one of the fastest growing hispanic populations. at the turn of the century, it's 70% hispanic, largely dominican america, trump carried that city. it approved over what he did in 2020. so you see and there's network of counties, cities in this region of pennsylvania, small, mid-size cities with substantial hispanic population, big blue counties, got less blue, trump made progress, he made progress in all of these counties here. to cap it off for trump, lackawanna county, scranton, biden originally from scranton, pennsylvania and the midwest, a

big blue collar county not as big of a hispanic population but look, a core democratic county right through obama's second election in 2008. biden from scranton comes along in 2020 the democrats -- they don't get this back they get it close to double digits. coming into the night, would it look like '20 bad news for trump. like '16, it looks better. he'll lose this just under 3 points. compared to where this was in the obama era, trump clawing back lost support in blue collar support in lackawanna county. you see that here and in a lot of these battleground states especially in the northern tier. >> steve, give us the headline

for the night, not just in pennsylvania but across the country. is it the 45% hispanic voters going for the republican candidate donald trump, the gender gap not as big as was expected, what are your two, three takeaways that explain the redness of the map from coast to coast. >> the gender gap, we're looking at it looks like a 20-point gender gap. ten points for harris among women and ten points for trump among men. 30%, 35-point gender gap and especially many context you mentioned it in the last segment, the iowa poll the weekend before the election, here's this deep red state suddenly in play because of this seismic move of women against

trump in iowa. we don't see that. that's not popping up on this map. suburbs of philadelphia. the hispanic vote, in the context of pennsylvania, but i think more broadly the hispanic vote in this working class and multi-ethic coalition what this looks like for trump he pulled together, the implications for that extend far beyond the battleground and taking you through some of these, new jersey, this is a five-point race in a state that joe biden won by 16 points, if this holds this will be the closest new jersey has been in 32 years. check this out. this county here, the city of patterson, new jersey, you're talking about a 45 or so hispanic county. it's red tonight. donald trump looks like he's going to carry passaic county.

hudson county, 80% hispanic, 46-point win for biden. comes down to 28. a 12-point, 11-point margin there for harris in new york. that's cut in half from biden was. new york city gains, double-digit gains for trump. some boroughs, getting close to 20-point trump gains. illinois, harris is winning illinois by four points. compared to four years ago when biden won it by 17 points. look at the national popular vote where it stands now, better than 5 million vote advantage for donald trump. in the past, california is going to come in late, a huge massive democratic landslide, overturn all this, when trump starts

racking up the improvements he's had in huge blue states in new york, illinois, maryland, 23 points, landslide for the democrats. four years ago it was 33 points. that's a pretty big state there. double-digit gain for trump right there. those kind of gains without gaining an electoral vote have given donald trump an advantage, it eclipses anything he got before in 2016 and 2020. enough to withstand california. trump folks want to win the popular vote. you'll end up with the popular vote. we could talk, does he get an outright majority? he could easily win it without getting an outright majority. the effects of the cocollision

trump has has been felt well outside the battlegrounds. >> the senate, i think republicans surprised even by their margin there. in the closely watched races, sherrod brown lost his seat in ohio. closely watched race in texas, people hoped in democratic party that colin allred might knock off ted cruz, lost by a million votes. >> we'll take a look here, west virginia, i'll put the senate map up, west virginia, that was the automatic republican pickup. ohio, sherrod brown going down to defeat. you take a look at montana, jon tester with more than 80% of the vote in, quite a mountain for

tester to climb there. where it gets interesting in the senate right now, these three states of wisconsin, michigan and pennsylvania. i'm going to start in wisconsin, take a look here, actually, this is almost all the vote in wisconsin is in now, an hour ago we got the bulk of them what was left in milwaukee and racine, tammy baldwin is ahead by 30,000 votes. disparty between the senate race in wisconsin that baldwin is leading by 30,000 and the presidential trump declared the winner by 30,000, what's left, there's very, very little left in wisconsin, so baldwin is in very good position actually

here, amazing how close these two races are and they may have different races from a partisan standpoint. also that's a possibility over here in michigan, right now, again 95% of the vote, mike rogers the republican is leading. the margin is only 13,000 votes for rogers. the presidential race in michigan, look at that difference, 113,000 votes is the margin for trump. wayne county, detroit and its enviro in, s, harris is leading by 30,000. 100,000 votes left to come in wayne county. in terms of harris overtaking trump in michigan she won't do it from wayne county and still some republican areas that are left, that may not be enough to lift harris over trump in

michigan but when you go back to that senate race that 100,000 votes in wayne county could lift slotkin over mike rogers. let's look at pennsylvania. david mccormick 65,000 votes ahead of bob casey. 66,000 votes to the presidential race in pennsylvania. 1169,000. a gap there. what's left in pennsylvania, the biggest one is going to be philadelphia, okay, 84% there, what they've told us in philadelphia some time this morning there's going to be another release of big batch of vote by mail. philadelphia gets a lot of it. it takes a long time to count it. vote by mail is extremely democratic. you can look for democrats in that vote and what's still to come in philadelphia, democrats

are going to gain ground. harris is going to gain ground. will ad to that margin in pennsylvania. not enough to put her anywhere in the game the state has been called. with the twist being in pennsylvania, there's provisional ballots, numbing in the tens of thousands out of philadelphia, that we expect to be heavily democratic. so the combination of that vote by mail, that provisional, anything else remaining in philadelphia could that be enough to lift casey over mccormick that starts to get interesting. there are some other republican areas that could balance this out a little bit overall you expect casey and harris to tighten those races and again, harris won't come anywhere near winning it.

but casey. only one state in those two elections where the senate and presidential had a different outcome. >> all right, steve kornacki, well done. thank you very much. >> thank you, steve. lot to go over, john, you wanted to talk about joe biden. >> the sheer volume of this victory. donald trump improved his performance in 90% of them. staggering number up and down, every demographic he did better this time around. i was talking to some democrats this morning, as they start to pick up the pieces, two sliding door moments, the idea had president biden decided earlier he wasn't going to run --

>> so that's number one. >> gives vice president more time or we have a primary. what happened in february 2021, post-january 6, the republican party was ready to move on most of them from donald trump yet he was acquitted in the senate his second impeachment trial, mitch mcconnell decided not to get a conviction, there wasn't even an effort. had he been given convicted he wouldn't have been able to run again. trump was able to ginl his slow comeback. if the attorney general appointed a special counsel sooner perhaps those federal cases would have been further

along and change this race. >> it's important for us to remember maybe his mistakes weren't mistakes. trump's mistakes. maybe they weren't mistakes. we talk about the abortion issue. if you look at what happened on the abortion issue yet, nine of the ten states by a majority, florida didn't get far enough but it was 57%, they voted to protect abortion rights in missouri, montana, nebraska the only place that defeat td it was south dakota. only state in the union were people didn't vote in favor of abortion rights no matter how red it. so people went in that booth, in montana, for example, he won by 20, okay? and abortion rights won. and then you look at my senate

colleagues. i think, and steve can probably say i'm wrong eventually, but i believe based on the numbers yet to come in that we're only going to lose two incumbents besides west virginia and that is sherrod and john. once again, look in those states. trump won by 20 in montana, tester right now is only down by 7. in ohio trump won by 12, sherrod is only down by 6. so the moral of the story is you can overcome trump but not that that much. and the other moral of the story is, listen, we spend a lot of time talking about abortion rights. america decided not to blame donald trump. america decided, okay, i can vote to protect abortion rights and also vote for him and we are not going to have these immigrants ma regarding us and these kids turning trans when they go to school. >> to raise a question, a good question for you and the panel, if you look at the numbers in nevada, we don't have the full vote in nevada, arizona and all

of these states, as steve just went through n wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, the democratic senate candidates overperformed kamala harris in pretty much all of them as far as at this point, it looks like jacky rosen could win that race, overperform kamala harris. gilego in arizona i think will be the winner, way overperformed kamala harris. what explains that? i don't know that i've ever seen a situation where consistently a party -- a party's senate candidates have overperformed their presidential nominee. somebody will correct me if there is a past example. i can't think of one, but it's pretty much across the board in these competitive senate races. what explains it? >> what explains it to you? would you like me to say it or are you going to say it? if she were a 6'4" white man from arkansas or from, you know, florida and she ran a good, middle of the road campaign, talking about reaching out, do you think she would be losing by

that much? if she could chew tobacco and carry a shotgun and talk about football and be a guy's guy? i mean, you tell me. >> well, let's combine that, though, and i don't discount those questions of race and gender, but i also think we should combine that with the thing we talked about earlier, which is unlike -- unlike all those senate candidates who were campaigning for two years and are very well-known, some of them incumbents who are very well-known in their state, if you asked on the day that kamala harris got in the race if you went to nevada, arizona, montana, pennsylvania, and asked voters -- asked voters in a focus group how much they knew about the vice president versus how much they knew about their sitting senator, a lot of them will know way more about their sitting senator than kamala harris. >> and, by the way, most people that know a vice president don't think much of a vice president. >> right. >> george h.w. bush was a laughing stock. he had a year, year and a half to run to get elected president

of the united states. that happens time and time again. i will say, though, claire, even in my small congressional race, the first time i ran, and your larger senate race, you know, i ran a year and a half. why did you run so long? because it took me six years -- i mean, six months of screwing up to figure out what was connecting with people. it took me nine months to figure out what stump speech i wanted to carry in, you know, whether it was vfw halls or churches or wherever i was going. it takes time. and that's for, again, a small congressional race. you are parachuted down with three months to go in a presidential race. americans don't have a lot of time to get -- you know, get familiar with you. >> yeah, no question about that. and turns out that, you know, fear and anger -- fear and anger were the most powerful political tools right now in america. and we all believed, i think, to

a person and i think the vast majority of people who voted for kamala harris believed that fear and anger were not the answer, but clearly fear and anger is what he was marketing and it worked. and we've got to come to grips with that. this isn't as much about donald trump as it is about america. >> rev, this picking up the pieces and the postmortem will begin this morning in the democratic party and may go on for years to come. this is a generational defining election where we have to ask some hard questions of themselves inside the party. in these early hours after donald trump is declared the winner, what's your assessment of what happened and where the party needs to go from here? >> well, i think a serious assessment must be made to really understand the fear that donald trump was able to play on people, and really rather than just finger pointing and name call, really understanding what drove a lot of voters to not go where in my opinion logic should

have brought them, and whether the messaging was right. but i also go back to the point i made earlier and joe raised, we cannot ignore that there's still a lot of racism and gender bias in this country. i think for us to ignore that and not try to bring that front and center so we can heal that would mean that we would end up in the same place. kamala harris is a woman of color in an interracial marriage running as a woman to be the head of state. that is something a lot of americans are not ready to deal with. how we move that forward, we need to face it and deal with it. and i hope we do it in a way that shows that we will be more mature than when they lost. there will be no january 6 insurrection from our side. it must be the maturing of america. >> well -- >> i will just say, rev, really quickly, too, democrats need to be mature and they need to be

honest. and they need to say, yes, there is -- there's misogyny but it's not just misogyny from white men, it's misogyny from hispanic men. >> right. >> it's misogyny from black men, things we have all been talking about, who do not want a woman leading them. might be race issues with hispanics, they don't want a black woman as president of the united states. you know, the democratic party, i've always found when you're sitting around talking, they love to just sort of ball kinize everybody into separate groups saying white women don't like black -- no. it is time for the democrats to say okay, and you and i have talked about this before. a lot of hispanic voters have problems with black candidates. >> right. and with other hispanics. you've got some that don't like each other.

and some of the most misogynist things i heard in the get out the vote tour came from black men. so you're absolutely right it's not simplistic and we have to have real honest conversations about it. >> real honest conversationes. >> before we go to break i just want to say a word about kamala harris, the vice president, because she really put herself out there over the past few months at great risk and peril to herself and her family. she was thrown into the deep end of the pool politically and hit all her marks and then some and showed up for america. pushing back against negative forces from all sides and from those you couldn't even see, the ones we were just talking about. it's really difficult to describe what she -- what she did, what she tried to do, and the history that she did make i'm very grateful for. and perhaps we will learn from it. so i'm very grateful for the effort and i think we will be asking a lot of questions. >> right.

>> about ourselves and about the nature of how this all played out in the coming days and weeks. >> listen, and america is a story, i'm not being -- i'm not being po pollyannish, america i story and continues to be written every day. in 1966 -- or 1964 after barry goldwater got defeated, you should go back and look at the headlines about the end of the republican party. and two years later what happened? ronald reagan started the reagan revolution in california. you can say the same thing after watergate and in 1984 ronald reagan wins 49 states. everybody is talking about the san francisco democrats, they're going to be in a hole for the next generation. 1986 democrats shocked the world, they take control of the united states senate. we could do this over and over

again in 2004 you had george w. bush's team talking about a permanent republican majority in 2004. in 2006 nancy pelosi was speaker of the house. in 2008 barack obama gets elected and we hear about a rising ascendancy. this is going to be the democrats in control for the next 30 years. two years later the tea party wins, saying we're finished with washington and the way they do business there. we're here for good. two years later barack obama is elected president of the united states. again, so, yes, democrats, independents, republicans will learn from this and they will look at what kamala harris did. and as they look back at this year they are not going to be able to say, oh, there was a flawed candidate here who missed this mark in the debate and missed that mark on the "60 minutes" interview. they are going to look back and they're going to learn from

this. >> right. coming up, we will take a look at the historic nature of donald trump's victory. presidential historian jon meachum will join us along with two former members of the obama administration. we are back in two minutes. e ob administration we are back in two minutes

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badly. we're going to fix our borders, we're going to fix everything about our country. we made history for a reason tonight and the reason is going to be just that. we overcame obstacles that nobody thought possible and it is now clear that we've achieved the most incredible political -- look what happened. is this crazy? but it's a political victory that our country has never seen before. nothing like this. i want to thank the american people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president, and your 45th president. winning the popular vote was very nice. very nice, i will tell you. it's a great -- a great feeling of love. we have a great feeling of love in this very large room with

unbelievable people standing by my side. these people have been incredible. they've made the journey with me and we're going to make you very happy. we're going to make you very proud of your vote. i hope that you're going to be looking back some day and say that was one of the truly important moments of my life, when i voted for that group of people, beyond the president. this group of great people. that's donald trump declaring victory last night at mar-a-lago, and he was thanking the american people and actually at one point said, look at what happened. this is crazy. which of course is a sentiment that was probably shared by kamala harris and many people on the harris campaign as well. he talked about fixing our borders and also talked about helping our country heal. we will -- that will remain to be seen. you will remember after the

assassination attempt he said he was going to be in a more healing mode. that lasted about half an hour. >> right. >> so who knows? we will now look and see if such a wide margin will have more of a moderating effect. >> nbc news projects he won the state of wisconsin, giving him the electoral votes needed for victory. it's the third battleground state he flipped after winning georgia and pennsylvania, while michigan, nevada and arizona still hang in the balance. joining us the conversation we have rogers chair of the american presidency at vanderbilt university, historian jon meachum. msnbc contributor mike barnicle is here, former secretary of homeland security in the obama administration jeh johnson joins us, and former united states secretary of housing and urban development, julian castro joins

us now. >> we have to start with one of the headlines out of here. 45% of hispanics voted for donald trump. an even higher number than the 44% that voted for george w. bush in 2004. what made the difference for donald trump and hispanics? >> i think we have to start with a word you've heard over and over about the hispanic community, it's not monolithic. you have people of different national origin backgrounds, folks who have been here for ten generations versus folks who are more recent immigrants. so it's very diverse in its own right. i think that it was an economic message largely, the latino community is a working-class community. you heard complaints about inflation. every single speech that he gave donald trump said over and over when i was president we had the greatest economy. i mean, how many times did we hear him say that? >> right. >> i think that that seeped in. i think people believed that. i think they were responding to that. on top of that i think, you

know, oftentimes democrats had assumed that the immigration message in and of itself would make the difference, but this was really, i believe, centered around an economic message that appealed there. and that -- you know, that and i am sure that when we go back and look at the investments they made, that in this cycle as compared to cycles before, they invested more in ads, in door knocking, in outreach to the latino community that i bet ended up making a difference in places like pennsylvania. >> mike, it goes back to the old carville statement it's the economy, stupid. you heard a lot of voters talking about inflation. yes, inflation had gone down to very manageable rate, but still, you know, the comparisons between how much eggs, butter, groceries cost in 2024 compared to 2020 had an impact on voters.

hispanic voters, white voters, black voters, all voters. >> it had an impact about four or five times larger than the abortion ruling did, joe, because the democrats somehow have forgotten the lived economy of their citizens, of the people they represent. the lived economy occurs in grocery stores, it occurs at gas stations. every single day you see people filling up their tanks half full because of the cost of gas, you see people cutting back on groceries because of the cost of groceries, yet the democrats kept talking and talking about the booming economy, the strongest economy in the world, which it is, but it's not the lived economy of their constituents who lived it every day and many of them suffered through it every day. by the way, i'm glad that you mentioned just a few minutes ago 1964 because 1964 as most of us remember because we are involved in politics and i'm older than all of you put together

probably, the republican party led by barry goldwater was wiped out -- wiped out. four years later richard nixon won the presidency. so if the democrats would get their act together, led by some common sense people who stop hectoring their constituents over things that really don't matter in the long run, don't matter to their children's education, to their health care for their families, to the cost of groceries, things that don't matter, putting them up on the priority scale, the democrats would be a lot better off. >> well, and, again, we talk about that wipeout in 1964 of goldwater, four years later nixon won, two years later the reagan revolution started in earnest. republicans winning in the south for the first time. again, you could go to '84 when democrats were wiped out, two years later they win the senate. i could go through the list time and time again. that's just -- there is a give

and take in american politics. you can even go back to 2016 trump wins, 2018 nancy pelosi is speaker of the house again, 2020 biden wins, but '22 mike johnson is speaker, '24 donald trump is president of the united states and looks like has a very republican washington to work with. if there's overreach democrats can be sure in 2026 they will have a shot. but i will say they're going to have to take a long, hard look at themselves in the mirror and say do we want to be a party that gives up on 90% of people in rural america? do we want to be a party that gives up on a lot of people out in the suburbs? they have to make -- they have to make some tough decisions. >> turned out based on the result last night that saying donald trump is bad, which i think we agree he is in many ways, is not a winning campaign message in america. in fact, donald trump grew his

margins in 90% of the counties where he ran last night. grew his margins in 90% of the counties and made it really close in some blue states like illinois and in new jersey. jon meachum, it's a little early for the long lens of history, i understand this race was called for donald trump less than two hours ago, but what are your thoughts this morning? >> well, you can't be for democracy only when your side wins and i think the values and the principles that so many people have articulated over the past eight years and particularly since the post 2020 period have to practice what has been preached and i think what you see, certainly the feeling early on in the country is that the folks who are worried about democratic institutions -- lowercase d -- are acting in accordance with those principles. we have had 59 presidential elections in american history

and only 15 of them have unfolded in the electorate that voted yesterday. so more than two-thirds of our elections under -- unfolded at a time when either women couldn't vote or black folks couldn't vote, immigration was even more restrictive. so this is a long story and what i would say and joe and willie, we've talked about this a lot, and mike, the question now is all our republican friends who said -- and i wish i had a quarter for every time someone said this over the last 12 months or so -- yeah, i don't like the way trump acts, but i liked his policies. you guys -- second point, which i also want a quarter for -- you guys exaggerate this whole guardrails thing. well, now we will find out.

if they were right, and i pray they were, and i don't say that lightly, i genuinely want to have been wrong that the constitutional order was -- that this election result put it too much at risk, but now it's on those whom the country has entrusted power to prove that we were wrong. look, the success of an incumbent congress, the success of an incumbent white house is also the country's success. and so i think we take a deep breath, i think citizenship itself is about the hard work as st. paul said and president kennedy used in his -- the coda to his inaugural address, being patient in tribulation. there are a lot of people this

morning who are waking up who feel that the world is ending. there are a lot of people waking up who think, okay, we are back on the right track. the point of america is that we should all be able to have those different views, but move forward together. i'm not -- i'm not trying to preach here, but that's what democracy is. it's disagreeing and dissenting within a common vernacular. and the country has made a very clear decision and now we will find out if, in fact, the folks who have been entrusted with power are worthy of that power. >> donald trump wins overwhelmingly, it's looking like he is on track to win all seven of those battleground states. we have also been talking about republicans taking control of the senate and we have another call to make now. nbc news can project that jon tester of montana has lost his senate seat to tim sheehy, the republican in the state of

montana, adding another republican, joe, in the senate column as well. >> and we still have three that are being contested in the upper midwest, in wisconsin, michigan, and pennsylvania. we will be following those tallies. those are going to be very close right now, but republicans already have the majority in the united states senate. obviously allows them to appoint justices, also get donald trump's selections for cabinet officials through without much resistance at all. i do want to go back to jon meacham and add one more point. i'm with you. over the course of this campaign when donald trump said he was going to use the military to arrest democrats, he was going to shut down cbs because he didn't like how they edited a "60 minutes" piece, when his lawyers said he could use s.e.a.l. team six to assassinate his political opponents. everybody said he didn't say that. you would show him the clip and they would say, well, he doesn't mean t i'm with you.

if he doesn't mean it, if that was just strong talk during the campaign, then you are right, we are all much better for it. if he does mean even half of that, being a dictator on day one or all the other things he said, then, yes, madisonian democracy actually takes a tumble. so i think i'm with you, i'm hoping that donald trump didn't mean what he said on the campaign trail and i hope all of those that told you and me that, oh, please, you all are just getting taken up in memes and you just need to relax, let's hope they're right. >> yeah. it's on them now. it's on us -- the old phrase from the revolutionary era, eternal vigilance is the price of liberty. and everybody who found this election to be existential, you don't set those concerns aside, but what you do do is you have to watch carefully, you

participate in the arena and the people -- the remarkable number of our neighbors and friends who made a different decision now face a test themselves. >> a good time to bring in the former secretary of homeland security jeh johnson, you've been following this closely and there has been a lot that has been said and there is a lot that's been done in donald trump's first presidency that could lead one to believe that this was not just tough talk. >> i agree. i agree with what claire said earlier, actually. fear and anger won. he played to fear and anger and that prevailed. i once heard jon meacham say that george wallace's 19% in 1968 has now become the majority in this -- in this country. you know, on a very personal level, i'm trying to figure out the words of encouragement that

i give to my daughter this morning, who just 24 hours ago allowed herself to believe that a woman of color could be elected president. i don't know quite what to tell her. the story of this election is what -- is what julian was talking about earlier. we've come to believe over generations that different demographic groups vote as a block because for so often, for so long, the black vote in this country voted in a block, 90% for democrats from johnson all the way to obama. that's just not true anymore. as different demographic groups become further integrated into our society, they start caring about all the issues everybody else does, whether it's the economy, whether it's crime, whether it's border security and political scientists will study this for years and years. i'm fascinated with the fact

that in this city trump did better in every single borough. he went from 16% in the bronx in 2020 to 27% in the bronx in 2024. how did that happen? it's because of his message. it resonated with a diverse group of people in a place like the bronx, brooklyn, and so for us in the democratic party side we need to reevaluate how we approach americans in general and learn to talk not just to two or three issues to one demographic group or another. >> it's tough. >> very well said. to that point, secretary castro, picking up on what secretary johnson said there, the issue of immigration, you touched on it a minute ago. for a long time there's been this almost patronizing view among democratic leadership that they would get latino voters based on the issue of immigration. well, that blew up last night. i think it's fair to say you are

from the state of texas, you understand that people who live on the border, whether they're black, white or latino, believe a strong boarder is in their best interest. so what can you say about the issue of immigration and how it played into what happened last night? >> i mean, yeah, the polling showed that it was clear that in the latino community there was also a concern, like this was, as you say, for any americans, about the border. i mean, that was piped into everybody's social media feed, you know, television news coverage, newspaper coverage. people had that concern, right? and i don't think that over the last three years that the administration necessarily handled pushing back on that narrative very well. so kamala harris really was playing catch up during these last three months. and at the same time there was no real push on the other end of it that might have appealed to some latinos which was the comprehensive immigration part of it, reform part of t yes, president biden submitted something at the very beginning on his first day in office but

that was never part of the conversation. i think that pushing that part of it may have improved the odds of winning in places like arizona, nevada. those are still out so we don't know what's going to happen there, but also could have resonated with some of those families in places like pennsylvania and texas. >> mr. secretary, you were just talking about trying to figure out what you're going to tell your daughter in a land where you think and rightly so, that a campaign just concluded that was filled with fear and anxiety, and yet the person who filled the campaign with fear and anxiety is going to be the president of the united states. and i would think because we are all americans and we hope the best for this country obviously, we would hope that he would do well in office. now, he may not, but your daughter is the specific purpose of my question. what do you tell your daughter

as an american father who has served his country well, what do you tell her to give her a sense of optimism or hope about the immediate future? >> i guess i say what franklin roosevelt said in his last inaugural address, the trajectory of our nation is forever upward. there are setbacks, it sometimes feels like peaks and valleys, but the trajectory is always upward. that's a long -- that's a long arc. by the way, julian and i have the unenvyable task next month of going to the oxford union in londingen to debate and defend our american democracy. we will have to do a lot of time doing our homework. >> we should never surrender. i'm going to tell my daughter we will never surrender, we should never surrender to fear and anger. we are in a continued pursuit

toward a more perfect union. she was with me in chicago election night 2008 so i think she will understand that. >> david maronis in writing, first in his class, you can say this about american democracy, at the end bill clinton had lost a heartbreaking reelection -- no, i think it was '74 race perhaps for congress. i'm not exactly sure what the race is. he had worked hard, he had fought hard and he lost. and the next morning all of his dejected staffers were looking down and there was bill clinton shaking hands in the parking lot and his campaign manager turned to the person next to him and said, poor fool. he doesn't realize the campaign is over. the other person said, oh, yes, he does, but he understands there's another one coming in two years. and that's what i would say to

everybody who is at this point so despondent, you don't like what happened yesterday, in america we still have these things every two years and there's always as you go to debate this at oxford union, it's the great thing about america, there's always an ebb and a flow. every two years. one party goes too far in one direction, the american people two years later bring them back. >> you know, joe, everything about this country, especially when it comes to politics, has a repreise factor in it, it has happened before. one day in the campaign of 1968 nixon is on the train in the midwest i believe somewhere and as the train moves past the crowds that have gathered to see the train pass with nixon on it he sees a young girl holding a sign saying why am i forgotten? and that's where the forgotten american language came from in nixon's speeches that fall.

so many forgotten americans. and that helped him become president of the united states. it seems to me -- you served in the house of representatives, you served in the democratic administration -- it seems to me, and i don't think i'm alone, that a lot of americans feel forgotten by the democratic party and they chose to listen to a guy who was loud and angry and sometimes obscene and many times outrageous, but he survived. he was a victim. he became the victim during his campaign because of all the prosecutions against him, which worked for him. and he survived. so these forgotten americans, forgotten by the democratic party, look at donald trump and they say, maybe he will remember me. he's tough enough, maybe he will remember me. what do you do to get them back? >> well, i mean, i think it's true that democrats are basically going to have to do a version of what republicans did after 2012.

remember the autopsy that republicans did? now, they ended up going in a completely different direction. >> right. >> but democrats have to figure out a more powerful, resonating way to deliver the message and also to deliver the goods. i think that donald trump's success is a measure of how cynical people are about politicians living up to their promises in general, and they think in that landscape, at least this guy in his bluntness is telling me like it is. and they gave him credit -- >> a lot of it was not true. >> that's exactly right. he lies a lot, right, but they take that bluntness as refreshing and they forget that it was a series of broken promises on his end when he was president, but he sort of wipes that away with his marketing. >> veteran of the obama administration, former homeland security secretary jeh johnson and former hud secretary julian

castro. thank you both very much for being on this morning. we appreciate it. >> good luck at oxford. >> yeah. let us know how that goes. we will run some of it. presidential historian jon meacham, thank you as well, as always. still ahead on "morning joe," we're going to bring in elise jordan and eugene robinson for their thoughts on donald trump's victory. plus, steve kornacki is back with us at the big board for the latest vote totals. there's more coming in. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. you're watching "morning joe." we will be right back. hank used to suffer from what felt like a cold & flu medicine hangover in the morning. ha ha. haha! uhh, hank! switch to mucinex nightshift to relieve your cold & flu symptoms. uh oh! both help you get to sleep. mucinex is uniquely formulated to leave your system faster, so you wake up ready to go. going to work groggy? nope. try mucinex nightshift and feel the difference.

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live picture the sun up now, the rink, rockefeller center. 7:32 in the morning. donald trump has been reelected, now will be the 47th president of the united states, in an overwhelming victory last night. let's go right over to the big board where we find nbc news national political correspondent steve kornacki. steve, good morning again. we will talk about how donald trump did it in just a moment, but as i mentioned a few minutes ago we've got one more result in on the senate side. republicans will control the senate. senator jon tester the democrat in montana has lost his seat now, swing to the republican side. what does the rest that have map look like? >> yeah, that's three, west

virginia, ohio, montana, republicans picking up. talk about the possibility of could they expand that significantly? they may be hitting, the republicans, a bit of a road block beyond this. just go through the five outstanding now with montana called. let's just go east to west. we will start in pennsylvania, dave mccormick the republican 96% in in pennsylvania, about a 60,000 vote lead over incumbent bob casey. the context here, trump has won pennsylvania but this is the pattern, i will show it to you in pennsylvania. the 61,000 vote lead for mccormick at the same time that donald trump is winning by 165,000. so mccormick underperforming the top of the ticket. the republican top of the ticket by 100,000 votes. what that means is that mccormick is in danger in pennsylvania because there is a lot of votes still -- there is a lot votes still to come in philadelphia. philadelphia county it says that's the city of philadelphia only 80% is in. we're expecting sometime this morning they're going to drop off a big batch of vote by mail

to be overmingly democratic certainly. so the possibility exists -- it's a bit of a cushion there for mccormick, he may be able to withstand this, but the possibility exists certainly that casey could leapfrog mccormick still in a way that's out of reach for democrats in the presidential race in pennsylvania. let's see, that one, you know, mccormick certainly has a chance. where it gets even dicier for republicans, though, on the senate side would be here in michigan where elissa slotkin with 95% of the vote in, she just took the lead, in the last two minutes i would say, over mike rogers, the republican, in michigan. you can see just under 5,000 votes but the trend in the last couple hours for what's coming in has been favoring slotkin. what happened a couple minutes ago, red macomb county directly north of detroit, son-in-law of the remaining vote that came in there was democratic vote, enough to put slotkin ahead of rogers. biggest outstanding source of votes in michigan is wayne county, detroit and

surroundings. still 100,000 votes to come out of wayne county. heavily overwhelmingly democratic. so, again, in the context of a 4,720 statewide lead with alyssa slots kin with 100,000 still to come, real opportunity for her to expand this lead and this is the biggest source of outstanding vote by far, wayne county. if they can ratchet that up through wayne county that might be tough for rogers to catch her here. i could show you if i do this right. slotkin winning by 4,700 in the presidential race, again, 95,000, almost a 100,000 vote difference. we see it in wisconsin, too. trump winning the state by 31,000 votes, flip it over to the senate race here and tammy baldwin is leading it by 25,000, almost 26,000 votes. again, underperformance by eric hovde and there is not a lot of vote left in wisconsin so who

have -- hovde is in trouble there. nevada, rosen against brown. brown in the lead in the count with 1190 but i don't know how comfortable he feels with that because, again, look at the contrast to the presidential race where donald trump has opened up a very healthy five-point advantage statewide, nearly 60,000 votes, 60,000 votes in a state the size of nevada is very significant. you can see this is right here in clark county i think most dramatically, clark county 70% plus usually a democratic county by high single digits. so far trump is a point behind harris. very good for a republican in clark county, but flip it over to the senate race here and this is closer to what republicans are used to in clark county. that's a pretty big dropoff from basically a tie to 50,000 votes there, advantage for rosen. so, again, rosen with a real chance even if trump is in

pretty good position in nevada which has not yet been called rosen could pull that one out. arizona two-thirds of the vote, a little less in statewide, gallego 60,000 votes over kari lake, but, again, look at that, 104,000 for trump. so the democrat is winning the senate race here in arizona by 60,000 and change, while trump is winning by 104,000. that's a split of about 170,000 votes. that's the biggest dropoff between the senate candidates that we see is kari lake running below donald trump's number. lake extremely controversial figure in arizona, ran for governor, lost two years ago, still won't concede defeat in that race, might have hung over this effort in the minds of some voters. it's interesting on the senate side here, very, very big night for donald trump obviously, republicans, we talk about the national implications here. it's very, very narrow in these states but democrats do have an opportunity to limit that republican growth in the senate. >> maybe some late signs of hope

here at least on the senate side for democrats. let's go back to donald trump's victory last night, steve. we talked yesterday at this time about the counties where you would be watching as signals of how this was going to go. well, donald trump took north carolina, he took georgia, took pennsylvania, now we can say he took wisconsin, as you pointed out he's leading in nevada and arizona, the vote is still out there, also still out in michigan, but there is the real possibility that donald trump sweeps these seven battleground states. >> absolutely. we were just taking you through those numbers for trump, in arizona it's hard to decipher exactly what is left to come there. usually in arizona there's going to be nightly updates now that might stretch to the weekend with late arriving vote by mail ballots. in arizona those are typically been more republican friendly than others. trump might be -- if past pattern holds, trump could be in very good position there in arizona and, again, that advantage that trump has here in nevada, there's still vote by mail to be counted here but

enough vote in to say what trump is doing right now is something a republican hasn't done in nevada if in about 20 years, not enough to call the state or anything yet, but the trump folks have to be feeling good about what they're seeing in nevada, four already called in georgia and carolina -- north carolina, pennsylvania and wisconsin. waiting on michigan here where it's come under 100,000 trump's margin, 95,000 statewide. again, wayne county, detroit, about 100,000 more votes to come out of here. there are some other pockets, too. this one is going to be close. it's going to be close in michigan, but trump, you know, to be up this margin with this little vote left here, that's significant progress from 2016, it's very possible that while harris makes gains with wayne county and the other stuff left to come in the states, very possible that this is enough of a pad for trump to withstand that as well. that would make him seven for seven in the battlegrounds. as we discussed earlier, significant gains outside of the battleground for donald trump. this is not a 2016 scenario where he stitched together just

enough votes in just enough states to win the electoral college while losing by millions in the national popular vote. he's 5 million votes up now in the national popular vote. maybe not that full margin, but leading the popular vote may very well stand. he may win the popular vote outright this time. >> nbc news national political correspondent, steve kornacki, thank you as always. >> steve, while i'm walking around here, checking things out, i have a quick question. steve, i was walking in here, you know, kind of loitering around and i started noticing some of these swing states are actually getting tight and the reason i ask this question is like the polling, we all like bash the polls around, what we've been saying, this race is tight, looks like this race is tied. well, you look at these swing states, pennsylvania, michigan, wisconsin. these are all pretty much by the

time all the votes come in, they end up being like a one point difference, right? >> yeah. >> so, again, i know -- i mean, i will put myself at the top of the list, we are always bashing pollsters, but if in these competitive states that matter the most it ends up being a one-point margin for donald trump, this is exactly what people have been saying what, willie and mika and i and everybody at the table were saying, which is this race is a tie, it's within the margin of error, if it swings a little this way trump wins, if it swings a little that way harris wins. i was shocked by the nonswing states but even north carolina and georgia, those are within the margin of error, right? walk us through those if you will really quickly so you can explain to people saying you can't pay any attention to polls. >> you can't believe them. >> i'm the last person to defend pollsters, but in this case, like last night it was like three, four, five points, you were like, okay, this isn't

close, they really screwed up. no, the margin is getting down to like one in a lot of these states. >> i'm glad you mentioned that because it's exactly in wisconsin with just about everything in, you look over in michigan, right now it's 1.7 but this is going to tighten more because of wayne county so michigan could come inside of a point before all is said and done. pennsylvania is 2.5 right now, but, again, a lot to come from philadelphia that will tighten this. harris won't win t this is going to come tighter, too. down in the sun belt in north carolina, about 97%, just about all the vote, trump with a bigger advantage here of 3 points, but, remember, one of the things we were saying about the polls, they were all close but we said harris looked like she was doing a tick better in the northern tier of the battleground and trump's best states, not by a huge amount, but were the sun belt states. he is performing better in north carolina, go down to georgia, about a 2 point advantage for donald trump with basically everything in there. i think our poll average, our final poll average in georgia

had it at 1 point something for trump, he's going to win this basically by two or three points. our final national poll was dead even, we took everybody through yesterday the averages in all the battleground states and they were all basically inside of two points. as you say, that's kind of where they're going to fall here. the thing we were trying to reconcile was, okay, the popular -- the national polling was so much closer than it had been in '16 and '20, you know, trump was getting blown out in many cases in the polling before nationally. not this year. and yet the battlegrounds hadn't seemed to move. how could that be? how could you reconcile it? now we got the answer with these results. the other missing piece was we weren't polling much outside of the battlegrounds. the campaigns weren't spending any money or attention to the nonbattleground states but i think if we had been polling places more like new jersey or illinois, maryland, if there had been morphology there it might have caught it because it's the

gains trump played in those states, the leaps and bounds gains trump made in those states that have brought the national popular vote up. i like his chances, trump finishing ahead in the national popular vote, but if it's by a point, point and a half, i mean, honestly i wouldn't consider that a polling miss. we were telling you the average was tied, our final poll was tied, if trump wins by one, pretty good poll. >> in wisconsin it's going to be around 1%, in michigan probably going to be around 1, 1.5%, pennsylvania 1.5% or so. again, all within the margin of error and as you said the final nbc poll was 48-48 which, again, within the margin of error as california comes in and that tightens up. gene robinson, yes, we do -- >> gene robinson and elise jordan is here. >> -- love going after pollsters. this race is not going to be won

four swing states to three swing states. >> exactly. it all flips one way or the another. >> one is going to win seven, the other is going to lose seven and he goes and it's going to be by the narrow west of margins. if you look at the polls, look at what james said, look at what we were saying is that this race is a tie. that's exactly what happened. >> that's what happened. >> that push, that push went to donald trump at the end by a percentage point, 1.5 percentage points in three states that made all the difference. >> no, that's exactly what happened. now, i happen to think it was going to happen the other way. >> right. >> i thought that it was going -- it was tipping toward harris and i would not have been surprised had she swept the swing states. but clearly that was wrong. it was a kind of night for which hotel mini bars were made. but, look, you know, it's difficult for a lot of us to understand how donald trump,

given his record, given his incumbency, given everything he says and does, is trusted and liked enough by enough americans to make him president again. but there we have it. i mean, as you said, the polls had it at a tie race, it's going to come out a point or two, but, you know, in the -- not in the direction that i expected it to come. >> so, elise, we've been talking all morning that donald trump made gains almost everywhere over his margins in 2020, likely going to sweep the battleground states. what's your morning after assessment of how he did it? >> you've got to hand it to the trump campaign, they really ran a hell of a campaign, running up margins where they didn't previously. you know, at the end of the day the economy, the economy, the economy. inflation. it affects everyone's lives, you're paying double for food. biden is unpopular and she

didn't separate from joe biden early enough and she did it tep idly when the time came. while that's honorable as a personal trait she had to be more ruthless at the end of the day in separating because biden is unpopular. i also think that there is just a cultural element of voting for trump at this point, of voting against the condescending elites, that is -- supercedes everything. it is seen as them against us, he is our guy, look at how they tried to get him, look at how he always wins and he fights back, and he built a redemption narrative, and now -- >> and, by the way, elise, you and i -- i'm so glad you talked to that -- we grew up with that in mississippi, alabama, georgia, northwest florida. it was like the elites were always against us. it was hollywood always made fun of us.

the news media was always biased. you know, the things that our kids saw on tv always outside the mainstream. you know, the counterculture always embraced by the elites who just didn't understand how we lived in the flyover states. that was the narrative for our entire lives that we heard and i think you're exactly right, you know, a whole lot of talking about a whole lot of things, but at the end that narrative, which people have grown up with for 30, 40, 50, 60 years, it sticks. >> and that's why the anti-trans ads were so powerful, frankly, because it's not necessarily even about the trans issues, it is about schools and the issue of schools, and you look at -- remember that virginia governor's race when glenn youngkin upset it, it wasn't about book bans as much as it was people wanted to get their kids back in school.

>> right. >> when i think a national platform goes so local and hits into local issues that are hot buttons, you see how trump is successful. >> but, willie, we need to talk about the trans ad that donald trump ran 30,000 times, i think he spent $30 million on it according to npr, and, you know, as jack and i were watching football on youtube tv you can see four screens, that ad is popping up all fall, all fall. so it's like, you know, i'm asking people, do you guys see what's going on here, right? nah, that's nothing. it's not showing up. it's not showing up? >> then why are you doing it? >> 30,000 times because, guys, in a rural america guys across ? nah, that's nothing. guys in a rural america, guys across the midwest, guys -- younger guys who are hispanic and younger guys who are black

guys, they are all looking at that going, she's weird. as bill maher said she's too liberal. bill maher said that ad out there is basically say there's nothing the left will not say no to. of course we know the end of the story. rick wilson came on and it came up that was donald trump's policy, that was his justice department's policy, and nobody saw that ad because rick wilson tried to get that ad played and all of the pac groups, no, no, no, that ad is not having an impact. i am telling you that ad had a bigger impact than any ad that ran and that's why they ran it 30,000 times. guys were watching it over and over and over again going, whew. >> the power was it was in her own words, and she couldn't run

from that, and this was a trump era policy as we pointed out many times. and it got to the larger point that i think a lot of voters didn't buy her swing to the middle and they believed who she said she was when she ran for vice president. i think a lot of people thought that is her and she swung to the center to win a general election but we are not buying it. i live in a relatively rural area outside the city and there was a local race there and the republican changed her signs picking up on this and every sign said save girl sports. it was just her name for a long time, and she said if you read and talk to people around the campaign, she couldn't print enough of those signs. people were driving by saying i want one for my yard. when it was her name, oh, just a

candidate. >> "the washington post" writes i do think the prosecutions fed a narrative of trump as a victim. i also think democrats drug themselves into a hole in identity politics. that was probably the most effective of the cycle. i think that probably landed with a lot of traditionally democratic voters who feel like the party is of change. a lot of frustrated voters apparently decided to go with the tkpwao who wants to burn it all down. >> let's dig a little deeper, because you have that stacked on top of what happened on college campuses this fall stacked on

top of what has been happening on college campuses over the past four or five years. i said it on the air and every time i said it, people say you are just saying that because you are a white conservative. no, i am just saying it because every democrat that we have ever sat down to dinner with over the past five years that have kids that go to colleges, they are afraid to speak because they are afraid to be cancelled. beautiful day today, wasn't it? yeah. you know, my daughter at the university of virginia, she's afraid to raise her hand in class because if she says something politically incorrect, she will be immediately canceled and so they just sit in class quiet. now, if any of you -- which camera, give me a camera to look

at. boom, i will look at that one. if any of you out there say it's a conservative, white, southern guy -- that's where you are losing. that's where you are losing. because that's what i heard. i didn't hear it from republicans or trumpers, i heard it from democrats over the past three or four years. their kids were afraid to talk in class and say something unpopular because they would be canceled, and it's an epidemic. willie will tell you, it happens in new york city schools and it happens in colleges. all of this adds up to people going, come on, come on, this is crazy. and mike, it's having an impact from the trans ad to the athletics. and democrats should be smarter on the athletics thing. 85% of america oppose men

transitioning and competing against women. i have been saying this for years. this is not a hard call. can you show compassion and you can show grace and as the republican governor of utah said, let's figure out a way to do this but one way we don't do this is buy allowing men that transition after puberty competing against young girls who have been working their entire lives to be as good as they can be and then they get destroyed in the pool, on the track, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. >> let's take a couple. the husband is a firefighter and the wife is an emergency room nurse. they have three kids. one is college age and the other two are in high school. two kids who are in high school and the kid in college lost a lot of the school year in 2000

and 2021 after covid, they were kept home. >> he didn't get to play his senior year of football and been playing that since seventh grade. >> they missed proms and socialization. they moved on in their lives. the democratic party doesn't realize what they don't hear, what they don't talk to. these kids all went to schools where they came home and one of them got in trouble because they didn't use they or them or whatever pronoun was needed to be used in an eighth grade classroom and he got shunned because of it. the other child came home and complained about the guy playing on the girl's softball team, and

the parents don't know what to do, and the small number of democrats who call themselves progressive have spent the last decade pampering those people, and tell them no, you have to say they and you have to do this and live this way. there were a lot of transgender people, and we must respect them and nobody wants to harm transgenders, but how many of them are, significantly? >> this is a significant part, but what donald trump brought to the table was clear, present, vulgar and threatening and he won. >> because of all of what you just said, mika, a lot of people that formerly voted for the democrat heard him, washed him and listened to him and said, boy, he's tough enough to beat

down those people. >> again, we are talking about a lot of different issues, and we are not talking about the transgender issue, and as i said before there's a compassionate way to do two things at once. if you had a fourth child there going to a school, a college, that basically got shutdown by people burning american flags and trafficking anti-semitism, and that would be a political grand slam. it does not matter just to white people but look at the polls. coming up, keir simmons standing by with reaction to world leaders to donald trump's election victory. we're back in two minutes. with original medicare you're covered for hospital stays and doctor office visits, but you'll have to pay a deductible for each. a medicare

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we are hearing reaction from around the world, world leaders to donald trump's election victory. keir, what are global leaders saying this morning? >> well, mika, this is going to change the world. it's difficult to know where to start, honestly. the shock waves, i will be honest, shock waves of anxiousness and shock waves of enthusiasm of not just some, and diplomats here in the gulf, saudi arabia, and the emirates and qatar talking and saying, wow, stunning, saying they were just watching, gripped by it. there's that side of it.

when this is all happening, that's a different world to the world president-elect trump left, problems in the middle east, and let's start with prime minister netanyahu, and talking about my friend, donald trump, so doing what many leaders are doing and leaning into that situation with the president elect that is transactional. people know this guy, and different from 2016. you have president erdogan from turkey saying my friend, and so the question is looking ahead, you can't be friends with everybody in geopolitics, and

then that's one aspect. and then one iranian diplomat that says u.s. elections do not concern us and i think they will find this does concern iran, and the commander renewing threats within an hour of the results, and that points to israel and that points to that history, and events will move quickly. president trump and president biden will have to respond to threats, and no congratulations from china yet, just a statement from the minister of foreign affairs there saying we will continue to approach and manage u.s./china relations there, and we are told by one chinese

diplomat that they were actually watching avidly through the night. i think the sign there is china has not decided how to respond. through the night, president macron, i am told, was watching between sweeping and he was one of the european leaders to signal and announce their congratulations. it's interesting to hear many european leaders not talking about my friend but instead talking about the deep relationship with the peoples of the u.s. and the question is how far will that go because there's that trade and economic competition between the u.s. and europe. there will be questions there. and let's get to ukraine and russia. president zelenskyy urging -- talking about congratulations but quickly pivoting to earn president-elect trump to keep supporting ukraine. conversely, a spokesperson for

the foreign ministry saying hallelujah. we are picking up on telegram channels, for example, many celebrations for many russians. we have also spoken off the record with russian diplomats who are not authorized to speak on the record. slightly more nuance there. one saying there's a chance for a truce, at least a truce. another official saying less predictability, less predictability is incoming. i think understanding among some russian officials that you just don't know what president trump -- what president elect trump is going to do, and that is the same with ukraine where he said he would solve, i think he said within 24 hours, right? >> oh, boy. >> and that seems unlikely, and russia and ukraine will have a say in all that as well as europe, of course. >> nbc's keir simmons live in

dubai. thank you for that analysis. >> thank you, keir. jonathan lemire and jordan still with us. and chris matthews and chief white house correspondent for "the new york times," peter baker joins us. >> peter, let's pick up on that. what are the changes we see coming in foreign policy? we always noted in donald trump's first term, he was -- at the lemire press conference in helsinki where they get him to say he trusts putin more than his own intel people, and there was a tough pro putin talk but the legislation and action towards russia tougher. what do we expect this time? >> congress has changed since that time, and at that time the

republicans in congress led by mitch mcconnell was willing to defy him. today you have a house republican caucus that voted against the latest ukraine aid. and right up front on foreign policy is nato. he doesn't have to with draw from nato and he tried and thought he wanted to do it first term, and it doesn't matter if he pulls out because what he said about article 5 is nato is a dead letter. if you do not believe the united states is going to come to the defense of allies, which he made clear is not a given, it doesn't mean all that much. you see people all over the world recalibrating their expectations and does china worry about the united states when it comes to things like taiwan and the south china sea. probably not because trump never expressed much of an interest on those issues, and as keir said,

the world is waking up to a different place. >> you look at china, and donald trump is at least in the first term he was focused on finance. he was focussed on trade. he was focused on tariffs. he was not focused so much on taiwan, and now there's a big question is the united states over the next four years going to abandon ukraine and their fight for their life, and also the taiwanese. the biden -- this will get lost in history for quite sometime, but the biden administration was tough on china, and you look at what they did from australia up from the philippines and guam -- they really were hemming china in. i suspect he will probably retreat from that, won't he? >> china was tough on china and bolstered our pacific partners,

and nato was not strengthened but expanded and he rallied the world to help kyiv and that's in danger, to peter's point, donald trump never expressed much interest in taiwan and made it clear that the aid to ukraine will come to an end, and the vice president-elect j.d. vance has done the same. and trump made it clear to netanyahu just yesterday and dismissed one member of his cabinet standing up to him and solidifying his control there and trump said to netanyahu do what you need to do in terms of the middle east. this is a reshaped world. we are seeing these world leaders rushing to congratulate trump, and most of them privately did not get along with him in the first term and realize they have to deal with him again and that includes zelenskyy. >> yeah, it's a extremely important moment in kyiv where

they worry they could collapse. kamala harris did not do what we needed to do in the suburbs of philadelphia. what is your morning-after assessment of what happened? >> several months ago, maybe a year ago, i began to study the 50 in the middle and who carville calls the pheuplgts, and the trump vote between '16 and 20 had gone up in the 70s. the red states, the red counties were going to get redder and redder and he was going to do better in those areas and maybe enough to overcome the suburbs, and he did. i think that's it. it's all about immigration and the economy. immigration has been a terrible decision for democrats.

i don't know who they think they were playing to when they let millions of people come across the border at their own will because of their decisions, they came running through the border and they didn't do a thing about it and a lot of people are angry about that and working people especially and they feel like they have been betrayed and their country has been given away, and the hispanics didn't like it and want the law informed and so i am not sure they were playing to anything smart here and that's what it is, an open border. it was a bad decision. i hope they learned from it. the economy, you can talk about the rates of inflation going down, and what people do is remember what the price of something was, gas or cream cheese and they will say i can remember when it was $2 and now it's $7. that's how people think. democrats don't know how people think anymore. they think about their country

and the cost of things and the working people figured all of these college kids, all that went to elite universities, all looking down on us and besides this we are getting condescension and deplorables and all that stuff. >> you talk about the college kids that graduate and go out and try and buy a home, good luck. i mean, even the young voters a couple weeks ago, the democrats said i don't know what it means for our future and we are not pulling in the young voters the way we used to pull in young voters. it seems to me, chris, and you are old enough like i am, you are old enough to remember this, and this seems like the low point for the democratic party going all the way back to 1984, you know, the san francisco democrats, reagan wins 49 states and the party is in complete chaos, and two years later jesse

jackson travels around the south, he registers a lot of voters and democrats shock everybody, take back the senate in '86. i don't know it will be that clean and neat here, but, man, there has to be a real re-examination for all the reasons we were talking about it, and a lot having to do that progressives don't like talking about and that was political correctness. willie showed me what he had written down on his piece of paper where he's also talking about the sort of things that upset working class democrats that used to always vote democratic and are now voting republican. >> you know, i think there's an issue about gender and i want to get into the issue. bob casey was a popular governor here in pennsylvania. he said pennsylvania is a john wayne state and not a jane fonda

state. you can read a lot into that, but one of this is the old values, yes, about the male patriarch and all the negative things, but there's a toughness. if we are going to get a woman elected president, and we can do it in generic terms because it will be generic from now on, and i think there could be a more conservative candidate or republican, and margaret thatcher, and maybe hillary was right, she had to be tougher on war issues and if you are going to run as a woman, all three strikes can't be against you, woman of color, or you are weak on defense or spending. the democrats have to stop all this spending and my wife loves to argue and she's a big democrat, and she said the economy is in good shape, and i said, yeah, the more the government spends money the more it jacks up prices.

if you spend more money the prices of things go up and that's a fact. the democrats never addressed that. they went right past the graveyard and said we don't know how to inflation came to be, i understand that, and we don't understand the border problem -- yes, we do understand the border problem. the guy said to me why does the guy love his country, and if you are seeing your country overrun by those coming over. >> and you live in philly or washington, d.c. and you have police forces that can't keep cops on the force right now, and over the past three or four years crime has been everywhere in those cities. that also has an impact. it was so interesting about what he said about bob casey saying about your john wayne -- it's a john wayne state. i know you heard me tell this

story before, but 30 years ago in 1994, my first day knocking on doors, i knocked on, like, you know, 50 doors and i came home and my parents said, how was it, joey? i said, well, i learned you are either on the side of john wayne or you are on the side of jane fonda. i said that to them. it's that split. you see it the second you knock on the door. i will tell you that was 30 years ago and that is still the cultural rift that pulls at americans. >> and you have to figure out within that how to win and there's a lot of legitimate discussion here about how democrats lost this. but the other -- i just got a text from a member of congress saying something else we need to look at is how people are turning to social media and podcasts and other nontraditional sources for their news and news stations that aren't news, and i canvassed and all of the battlegrounds i was

shocked by all the information, and i do believe this is what caused the collapse of the democrats nationwide. you cannot win when people believe lies. i think that's fair, too. >> willie, we talk about it all the time. we talk to our friends who are lawyers and who are money people on wall street and they just give you misinformation. dude, where did you get that from? and then you sit there and you talk them through it and they are, like, are you sure, did he really say that? he didn't say that about cheney. you are making it up. and then they will swear he didn't mean it. >> yeah, why are you biting on all the bait he throws out there? well, we watched him for four years as president and take him at his word. what does the next four years look like? >> the progressive era should be

over if they want to start winning again. >> wow, there's that. >> peter baker? >> peter, final thought of the morning. >> we learned trump is not the aberration anymore and in fact this is trump's america. i think for a long time a lot of liberals and republicans that didn't like trump told themselves he was a historical anomaly and he didn't really win in 2016, and he didn't win in 2020 no matter what he says and he will be purged, and that's not the case, we will have a 12-year era of trump and that's a significant era. >> you have to put him up with ronald reagan and barack obama and bill clinton, people that defined an era. it won't be eight years but 12 years. >> yeah, thank you all for coming in after a long night. still ahead on "morning joe," steve kornacki will be

back with us again at the big board. we will talk about how the issue of abortion played out in ten states last night, more than two years after the supreme court overturned roe v. wade. you are watching "morning joe." we'll be right back. some days, you can feel like a spectator in your own life with chronic migraine, 15 or more headache days a month each lasting 4 hours or more. botox® prevents headaches in adults with chronic migraine before they start. and treatment is 4 times a year. in a survey, 91% of users wish they'd started sooner. so why wait? talk to your doctor.

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>> yeah, where to begin? i happen to be in pennsylvania right now. you can see here trump winning this thing by two points in pennsylvania. what keyed this? a couple things jump out at me that spill over to the national story line. first of all, you talk about the suburbs. we spent so much time talking about the suburbs in the trump era and how they become more democratic especially suburbs with high concentrations of college degrees and higher incomes like the collar counties around philadelphia. this is part of what happened for trump in pennsylvania and in other key battleground states. i want to show you montgomery county. this is the biggest of the philadelphia collar counties. it fits the democratic description i was just giving you and it's a place where democrats have been driving up bigger and bigger margins and they came in tonight thinking and banking that would continue. take a look here in 2020, and trump won -- excuse me, biden

won montgomery county by 20 points and harris wins it tonight and the margin comes down by four points. and they thought maybe it would go north and get close to 30%, something like that. we saw it in montgomery and chester and other collar counties and other states, these big suburban areas that got bluer and bluer. they stayed blue like this but didn't get bluer this time around. trump stopped the slide in places like that. meanwhile in pennsylvania, something else, too. i have been saying the trump coalition has been winning here and it's a blue coalition and we have been talking about that for a while and tonight -- i say tonight but last night it became a more diverse blue coalition. we are talking about a place like where hazleton, pennsylvania is. it has one of the fastest growing hispanic populations, and at the turn of the century

it was 5% hispanic and now it's nearly 70% hispanic. a largely dominican american. trump carried the city of hazleton and there's a network of cities, small and mid side cities with substantial hispanic populations. a lot of them, they are big and blue counties and they got less blue. kamala harris still won some but trump made progress in all of the counties here, and then to cap it off for trump, there was this one, lackawanna county, scranton, and pennsylvania and the midwest, you see this throughout, a big blue-collar county and not as big of a hispanic population as others i am talking about, but it was a

core democratic county right through obama's second election in 2012, and trump comes along in 2016 and cuts it down by three points and then biden from scranton comes along in 2020 and they get it back close to double digits. they said coming into the night, would it looks like 20, that would be bad news for trump and then in '16, that would be good news. you compare it to when joe biden ran four years ago. trump clawing back and lost support in blue-collar places like lack juana county. >> so steve, give us -- give us the headline for the not, not just in pennsylvania but across the country. is it the 45% hispanic voters going for a republican

candidate, going for donald trump, was it a gender gap that was not as big as expected? what are your big two or three takeaways that explain the redness of the map from coast-to-coast? >> no, i think first of all the gender gap, yeah, absolutely. we are looking about a 20-point gender gap and that's big, and it's about 10 points for harris among women and 10 points for trump among men, and the context shows this is a 30, 35-point gender gap, and the iowa poll, the weekend before the election was suggesting here's this thought to be deep red state suddenly in play because of the seismic move of women, especially senior women against trump and everybody thought, boy, is that going to be the story in iowa and everywhere, and we don't see that and that's not popping up on the map. i think that's part of it, and

the hispanic vote, i am giving it to you in the context of pennsylvania. more broadly, the hispanic vote in the working class ethnic coalition, that's what this looks like for trump that he pulled together, and the implications of that extend far beyond the battle ground. willie mentioned that in new jersey. this is a five-point race in a state that joe biden won by 16 points. if this holds it will be the closest new jersey has been in 32 years. check this out. this county here, passaic county, the city of patterson, new jersey, is there, and you are talking about a 45% or so hispanic county and democrats automatically win this in new jersey and it's red tonight. and i think willie mentioned hudson county. this is a massive county. you have cities like union, new jersey, and it's hispanic and this biden wins it and it comes

down to 28 points. that's cut in half from where biden was. these new york city gains for donald trump, double digit gains and some close to 20 points that trump gains there. illinois, 91% of the vote in and harris is winning illinois by four points and compare that to four years ago when biden won it by 17 points. this is sort of a multiethnic working class does, and trump still loses the states but look at the popular vote where it stands right now, and if you are thinking, you know, as in the past california is going to come in late and it's going to be a huge massive democratic landslide that will overturn all this, and when trump starts wracking up the kinds of improvements he has in huge blue states like new york and illinois, and i will give you another one, maryland, 23

points, a landslide for the democrats and four years ago it was 33 points. that's a big-sized state there and that's a double digit gain for trump right there, and those types of gains have given trump the advantage. the eclipse is what he got before in 2016 and 2020 enough to withstand california. i think if you are the trump folks, you are feeling good and will end up with the popular vote. we will talk, did he get the out right majority, and he could easily win it without the majority, but different than four years ago. this is a -- the affect of the coalition trump has have been felt well outside of the core battleground. coming up, how wall street is reacting to the election of donald trump.

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let bring in the conversation, the host of "politics nation," the reverend al sharpton. you were with the harris campaign and as the night went on things became more grim for them and ending in shock this morning as the race was called for donald trump. >> probably shock would be the word for many that were at the howard university party, and then disbelief. i think also what we have got to deal with, you are correct when you say the economy was weighed and a distorted view of the

economy, and remember donald trump is an expert promoter and he was able to get a lot of myths across the table that were not true but it was not well promoted on the other side. i think we also have to deal with the issue of race and gender. there was a lot of gender bias in this. there was a lot of race bias in this and i think we thought a lot of voters were more progressive in those areas than they were. when you have the dobbs decision and you see this kind of vote anyway with the person that put the three justices on the supreme court, you have to ask yourself are we fooling ourselves saying that americans are further down the road toward -- dealing with gender and race bias than we thought? i would say this, though, donald trump, i have known him for a long time and he will

self-destruct. the problem is not donald trump but it's those that can be appealed to in this way. we have to bring this country together. there will not be a january 6th on our side. we will deal with this in a dignified way and put the pieces together. we lost a battle and the war is not over. >> rev, let's talk about it. you talk about gender and race. let's talk about race. donald trump fared very well with hispanic voters, especially hispanic men. the numbers are coming in and it's still a little early, but i think he did better with black men than was expected in the past. what -- what do you think pushed that, especially with hispanic voters going for donald trump as much as they did, because that made a big difference? >> i think lot of it was he was able to sell a lot of hispanic

voters that immigration was a threat to them, that some of the people coming across the border was a threat to them. i think that we have got to be honest among hispanic men and black men, there's a lot of misogyny. i think we have got to deal with the reality that he appealed to this whole false macho thing that some black men and some latino men went for. i think that we cannot sit around just bedwetting. we have to deal with reality and we have to deal with the situation as it is in our own communities. >> well, bed witnessing -- political bedwetting gets you exactly this. at some point democrats are going to have to confront some realities that they have not wanted to confront in the past, and didn't want to confront in the past issues on the border.

it took them a long time to talk about that. a transgender inmate ad that ran, and i guess some people in the campaign and we talked about this before thought maybe they were too woke to respond to a false ad and maybe they were afraid that they would be attacked by their own base. there are so many questions for the democrats to answer, but one of them, the one that i just saw that is going to be staring them in the face for some time if they don't do something about it is that 45% of hispanics voted for donald trump. >> 45. >> i remember when george w. bush got 44% of the vote in 2004, and that sent shock waves. if you look at this and look at younger voters -- we have been talking about a new republican party, there needs to be a new

republican party. this morning, this is about as bleak a morning for democrats since the 1964 san francisco democrats, and it's time for the democrats to look a hard and long look at how this happened, and if they just say trump bad, democrats virtuous, they will keep losing. this, again, is so widespread. this is not about just donald trump. this is about the democratic party and being radically disconnected from the rest of the country. look at the map. >> yeah, as we talk about how donald trump won it. we had a number up there important to point out. donald trump did the same as he did with black men in 2020, so look at latino men and that number went way up for donald in his favor. and steve kornacki was breaking down how pennsylvania was that close. you go inside places like hudson county, and these are cities,

heavy latino populations and they went for donald trump and that's something the democratic party needs to take a long look at. coming up, how the abortion issue impacted the presidential election. claire mccaskill weighs in on that when our political roundtable continues right here on "morning joe." if no one can afford it. ♪♪ at evernorth, we're helping to unlock barriers. ♪♪ using our 35 plus years of pharmacy benefits management experience to save businesses billions while boosting medication adherence. helping plan sponsors and their members be at their best. that's wonder made possible. evernorth health services.

a lot to go over, john, and you wanted to talk about joe biden. >> yeah, the shear volume of the victory and there were 1300 counties in the united states and donald trump improved his performance in over 90% of them than where he was and that's a staggering number up and down the board in every geography and every democratic he did better. i was talking to democrats as we are this morning and they pointed to two sliding doors.

one, this idea that had president biden decided earlier he was not going to run for re-election -- >> when you say sliding door moments, is this the gweneth paltrow -- >> that was a great movie. >> appropriate here. that's number one. >> gweneth walked into that sliding door, we have an open primary system. even it gives the vice president more time or we have a primary. and then post january 6th, even the republican party was ready to move on most of them from donald trump and yet he was acquitted in the senate. that was his second impeachment trial, and mitch mcconnell decided not to whip the votes to try and get a conviction, and there was not an effort and trump would have not been allowed to run for office again.

and the biden administration has been saying if the attorney general appointed a special counsel sooner perhaps the federal cases would have been moved further along and changed the course of this race. >> it's important to remember that maybe his mistakes weren't mistakes. we were all really -- >> who? >> trump's. trump's mistakes and maybe they were not mistakes. we talk about the abortion issue, for example, and really nine of the ten states by a majority, and florida didn't get far enough and it was 57% enough and they voted to protect abortion rights in missouri, montana, nebraska. the only place that defeated it was south dakota. there's only one state in the union where a majority of the people didn't vote where it was put up no matter how red it is. and trump muddied the waters and

said the states will vote and people went into the booth and in montana, by for example, he would not by 20 and abortion rights won. then you look at my senate colleagues. i think, and steve can probably say i'm wrong eventually, but i believe based on the numbers yet to come in that we are only going to lose two incumbents besides west coast, and that's sherrod brown and ron. sherrod is only down by six. you can overcome trump but not that much is the moral of the story. and the moral of the story is, we talked a lot about abortion rights, and america decided not to blame trump and we are not

going to have the immigrants coming in and our kids turning transgender when they go to school. >> when you look at the numbers in nevada, and we have a full vote in nevada and arizona and all of the states as steve just went through in wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, the democratic senate candidates over performed kamala harris in pretty much all of them and at this point it looks like jacky rosen could win that race and over perform harris, and in arizona, way over performed kamala harris. what explains that? i don't know i have ever seen a situation where consistently senate candidates over performed their presidential nominee. somebody correct me if there's a past example of that. i can't think of one. but it's across the board in the senate races. what explains that?

>> what explains that to you? if she was a 6'4" white man from arkansas or florida, and she ran a good middle of the road campaign, talking about reaching out, do you think she would be losing by that much? if she could chew tobacco and carry a gun and talk about football and be a guy's guy, i mean, you tell me. >> let's combine that and i don't discount those issues with gender, and we can combine that that unlike the senate candidates who were campaigning for two years, and some of them were incumbents who were well-known in their states, and if you asked on the day kamala harris got in the race if you went to nevada, arizona, montana, pennsylvania, and asked the voters in a focus group how much they knew about the vice president versus how much they knew about their sitting senator, a lot would know about

their senator more than kamala harris. >> and george h.w. bush was the laughingstock and he had a year, year half to get run to get elected, and we say that time and time again. even if my small congressional race, the first time i ran, and in your larger senate race, you know, i ran a year and a half. people said why did you run so long? because it took me six months of screwing up to figure out what was connecting with people. it took me nine months to figure out what stump speech i wanted to carry in, whether it was churches or wherever i was going. it takes time. and time to get -- you know, get familiar with you. >> yeah, no question about that. and turns out that, you know, fear and anger -- fear and anger were the most powerful political

tools right now in america. and we all believed, i think, to a person and i think the vast majority of people who voted for kamala harris believed that fear and anger were not the answer, but clearly fear and anger is what he was marketing and it worked. and we've got to come to grips with that. this isn't as much about donald trump as it is about america. coming up, the shifting balance of power on capitol hill. jackie alemany covers congress for the "washington post" and she joins our conversation straight ahead on "morning joe."

coming up, steve kornacki is back at the big board to kick off the fourth hour of "morning joe." he joins us here in the studio when we come right back with our continued coverage of the 2024 election.

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the task before us will not be easy, but i will bring every ounce of energy, spirit, and fight that i have in my soul to the job that you have entrusted to me. this is a great job. there is no job like this. this is the most important job in the world. just as i did in my first term, we had a great first term, a great, great first term, i will govern by a simple motto, promises made, promises kept. we are gaeg to keep going to keep our promises. >> donald trump has secured a second presidential term.

earlier this morning nbc news projected he won the state of wisconsin, which gave him the electoral votes needed for victory. it is the third battleground state he flipped after winning georgia and pennsylvania, while michigan, nevada and arizona are still too close to call. welcome to the fourth hour of "morning joe," it's 6:00 a.m. on the west coast, 9:00 a.m. in the east and we want to get to the big board, don't we, to get a sense of where it stands right now, willie. >> how he did it. steve kornacki is still standing at this hour. nbc news national political correspondent joins us from the big board. steve, for people just waking up, donald trump has been elected president, he was the 45th president, now will be the 47th. how did he do it? >> i'd say the head line it's a blue collar collision but a more diverse blue collar coalition than trump has put together in the past. 276 that's trump's current electoral vote count. the battleground states that

have been called he has won all of them so far, that started with georgia, north carolina in the southeast, last night he added pennsylvania, wisconsin. we're waiting on nevada and arizona, he is ahead in both, it may take some time in those states. more immediately the other battleground state is michigan and we are getting close to 100% of the vote in here and trump with this lead of a little bit more than a point and a half here, about 90,000 votes. this is, you know, we're waiting for a little bit more out of wayne county here, where detroit s detroit area, again, to put you in some perspective here, look at the slippage there for harris. she's winning it by 28, biden had won it by 38. it's the city of detroit but it's dearborn, some cities are large arab american and muslim american populations, other suburbs, blue collar suburbs. a lot going on in wayne county and trump made significant progress here. overall in michigan we think there's about 160,000 or so votes left to be counted. for harris to erase a 90,000

vote deficit here it's extremely daunting. so trump may be well-positioned to add michigan to his talley here. we've seen this elsewhere on the map tonight -- tonight -- last night, go to pennsylvania and, again, working class, lackawanna, scranton, joe biden's home county, democrats win it. biden won this by more than 8 points, this is closer to what donald trump did in 2016, in fact, a tick better. for democrats it's nowhere near what it was before donald trump came along when they would win counties like lackawanna county by 30 points. there is multiethnic working class, luzerne county, pennsylvania, wilkes-barre is here, the city of hazleton is here. overall what happened in the county trump expanded a 14 point win four years ago into a 20 point win. i mentioned hazleton, hazleton, pennsylvania, which is 62% hispanic, turn of the century it was 5% hispanic, now it is 62%

hispanic. in 2016 the city of hazleton, pennsylvania, was won by hillary clinton by 5 points, it was d plus 5. in 2020 donald trump flipped the city of hazleton, 62% hazleton, won it by 11. last night the 62% hispanic city of hazleton donald trump won by 25 points. and if you remember there's some history in hazleton that goes back about 20 years, that was where there was a local ordinance as the latino population, the immigrant population was growing there, it sort of became one of the early hot spots of the immigration debate. donald trump the clear choice for the voters. multiethnic working class, when you find blue collar counties and with large hispanic populations you are seeing big gains for donald trump, last night. one that's not even in the battleground but i'm going to

call it, new york city here, heavily hispanics, the bronx, borough of new york city, harris wins it by 45 points. four years ago this was almost 70 points for the democrats. again, big hispanic population here. look at the strides biden made in the bronx, made some in queens as well. overall in new york city donald trump running 15 points better than he did four years ago. >> you know, you could say that this election is a game changer for all elections moving forward, but this, again -- this may be limited to donald trump, i think back to george w. bush who got 44% of the hispanic vote in 2004, that dropped off precipitously in '08 and '12. so who knows, we'll see, but it is fascinating that you look at these three states and we made the point earlier that the pollsters were right. i mean, they were notice margin of error. i'm wondering, steve, are you able to look at where

pennsylvania was in '16, '20 and then '24, the same with the other swing states, just to show what a razor's edge these three states have been every four years. >> yeah, i mean, here it is, donald trump in 2016, this was -- he won the presidency, he won the state and he was the first republican since 1988 to carry pennsylvania. his margin was 45,000 votes, joe biden won the state and the presidency. donald trump sitting on a lead here, 150,000 plus votes. we do expect that's going to come down a little bit because there is still vote from philadelphia left, provisional ballots, a lot of those so that should bring the number down. that's the range in pennsylvania over these last eight years. look at wisconsin, it's going to be the most tight. how about this, let's reset this one to 2016, trump flipped wisconsin in 2016, could you see it here, 23,000 votes trump won

wisconsin by. joe biden won it four years ago, his margin was 20,000 votes, and currently donald trump with almost all the votes in is winning by 30,000 votes. >> wow. >> those are the parameters in which wisconsin has been contested over the last eight years. even in michigan, you know, showing you waiting on a few more votes in michigan. this one has had a little bit more of a swing, but still look at this, you know, you go back here, donald trump won this by a whisker in 2016, two-tenths of one point. joe biden got this up to a 154,000 vote margin when he carried the state in 2020. donald trump undid all of that. ahead by 90 -- this is going to come down some, but ahead by 90,000 right now. it's going to land south of this. he is well-positioned i think to finish above it but it's not been called yet. the torn tier of those battlegrounds. they used to call them the blue wall. 1992, '06, 2000, 2004, 2008 they

were all democratic, every single one of those elections. trump broke that wall in '16, the democrats put it back up in '20 and it's down again in '24. >> nbc's steve kornacki. amazing. thank you very much for your analysis this morning. >> as robert frost would say, and that's made all the difference. >> yes, it does. >> those three states have made all the difference. he broke the blue wall in '16, he was elected president, he broke the blue wall in '24, elected president. so, donny, here is a number because we've been talking a good bit about democrats, we've been talking about donald trump for the past month or two, the things that he says, how shocking they are. this morning we're talking more about the democrats because this wasn't just a loss in those states. democrats only won in illinois by four points, only won in new jersey by five points. bleeding support in new york. you can go around the country. it's bad not just for kamala

harris -- again, kamala harris kept -- you know, kamala harris with these three states, she was like a percentage point away. we've been calling president this morning -- i'm not saying she should be president. i'm saying if you're kamala harris you can say, well, we ended up at 40,000 short in wisconsin, you know, maybe a percentage point here or there. so that's a presidential race. but the bigger problem with democrats is nationwide. >> yes. >> and this is what the democratic party needs to focus on. they can talk about donald trump. they need to look in the mirror because get this number, alex just gave this number to me, only 32% of the electorate yesterday identified themselves as democrats. i would have to guess that's probably the lowest number since maybe herbert hoover was president. i don't know. that is -- that's as low as it

goes for the democratic party. this is a party, and to their -- to their defense, two weeks ago some people in the harris campaign were saying, we had a problem, we have a problem with young people, we have a problem with hispanics, we have a problem, and they thought over the next two weeks they were doing enough to catch up. they didn't -- they didn't catch up enough, and so now 32%. that is -- talk about a branding problem. >> democrats are a broken brand right now. it was interesting, i was watching football over the weekend, you're being inundated with all the ads, you see the trump ads and they were very, very simple. it was here is your problem, i'll fix it. if your problem is inflation, i'll fix t if your problem is immigration, i'll fix t it was very simple. it was harder obviously for her to do and i think democrats are not -- don't seem to have the solutions to problems, and i think in the most simplistic advertising format of all time, problem, solution. i think the other thing that happened is -- what i will just

call the passion quadrant. this is i'm talking mostly centrists, this is where the democrats are really fractured. you basically -- there were so many people that were passionately for trump and passionately against trump. i'm talking about the voters that go back between biden and trump and obama and reagan. >> right. >> then you had passionate against trump and you didn't have as much passion for her. you never heard people go, oh, i love her. it just -- >> hold on. >> let me just -- >> i have to stop you there. >> okay. >> because that is wrong. >> okay. then i'm wrong. >> no. no. that's your world. >> i said that. >> but i'm just saying, though, you said you didn't hear people. we heard people all the time, women that mika talked to all the time, most excited. republicans driving five states over to see -- >> i will strike that. >> that is the world that you are in. >> yes. >> i get it. that's not the world that mika is in. >> let me finish one final thought and this is really

important. this is about going forward. i think a lot can happen from the bottom up, what i call managing up and this is from the 330 million people who voted. if you voted for trump, don't get in people's face and go, i told you so and now you're going to see -- put your arm around a democrat and say, i'm telling you, you didn't see something i saw. if you are a democrat don't get in the republicans' face going this is all your fault. say maybe i missed something. we can manage up. it's going to be okay. i really, really believe that because we are the united states of america and that's what happens. >> i'm curious your thought. what is the best way forward for democrats right now? >> so i want to say two things. first and foremost about the ads, because i -- i think if you did not live in a battleground state or didn't travel to a battleground state, when i travel like i've been to philadelphia a number of times over this past cycle and you turn on the local news, one, because i want to know what the weather is, that's how i'm getting t honey, i'm about to check local and, two, i want to

see the ads they're seeing on television. everybody is talking about the ads. well, the organizers and strategists that i know in pennsylvania specifically said that they did not know a person, a black person, that did not see that ad that said that -- that ended with kamala is for them not for us. and that was the ad that trump ran talking about trans people and also the ad about the -- with the breakfast club clip and talking about, again, trans people and surgeries, the stuff that you all debunked on this show said it was actually a donald trump policy. they put -- they the trump campaign, the republicans writ large put a lot of money behind those ads. if you go to texas or any of the states frankly they ran ads about the republicans up and down the board, they were running ads demonizing trans people. so one of the organizers and strategists in my phone has echoed i think put it very well, this is what i've been hearing from people ever since, i went to bed at 5:00 this morning, probably shouldn't have slept in, that's why i was a little

tired. they said nobody knew that ad. she said, you know, the breakfast club talking about kamala is in favor of illegal immigrants getting gender surgery in prison. the average person is like i have to spend $100 more on groceries a week. i don't think it bears out in the actual reality of what we are living, however, the perception that a number of people have fueled by the ads which were fueled by big money, bernie moreno in ohio their ads were about saying that sherrod brown is out of touch when it's like the audacity. sherrod brown believes in this -- again, demonizing trans people, queer kids. those things were effective not because democratic voters felt, oh, yeah, i'm against that. they just felt like they didn't hear enough people talking about them in the ads. so one of the things that democrats have to do is some of

this money was insurmountable, half a billion dollars was spent in the race for senate in ohio. you know, some of these places when you have a billion dollars as the presidential campaign but you have real groups who have been doing the organizing work for the last three cycles, including off years, and they can't get money from the campaign but the campaign got ads, that to me says we have to do soul searching. the last point i will make is that, look, when for a month strategists within the campaign are saying they believe that they have fixed their black people issue, you know it, they said it on backgrounds, deep background off the record, when they're telling people that, that to my says you're also woefully out of touch. i don't believe the vice president believed that. i think the vice president ran -- she herself left it all on the field. >> yes. >> but i do have an indictment of some of the strategy and, again, the people that said joe biden was the problem -- where is my camera -- >> he was not the solution.

he was not the solution. >> i will just note that -- i will just note that it is probably not the best idea that democrats orchestrated a very public stab fest, a proverbial stabbing in the front of the sitting president of the united states of america and then didn't use him in his hometown of scranton, pennsylvania. i will defer to mr. lemire. >> so, john, going back to what symone was just saying about that ad, it was run 30,000 times and it was -- it was overwhelming. it was a trump policy that kamala harris was echoing and the campaign was warned repeatedly that this was gaining traction. it was gaining traction especially among men, black men, hispanic men, that there needed to be an answer to it, and i will say i have -- i have few criticisms of this campaign, i thought they ran a great, brilliant campaign. this was a blind spot and it was a blind spot because i don't

know if it's a progressive mind spot, but this was a blind spot. they had an ad, rick wilson actually had an ad out that blew it to pieces in 30 seconds and nobody responded. so this attack, 30,000 times, never answered and it had an impact on voters across the midwest. >> yeah, the harris campaign never truly engaged upon t i also was in the philadelphia suburbs last month and during one of the baseball playoffs or nfl games the ad was inescapable, it was there, it was inescapable, it made an impact. talking to democrats this morning doing postmortems, they believed in their grond game, believe they knocked on the doors they needed torques hit all of their metrics. they're not giving elon musk and his group that much credit but elon musk will have an outsized role in the trump administration going forward. also when we see the final numbers there was a sense that there was a lot of democratic angst about her vice

presidential pick, should it have been josh shapiro. most say it wouldn't have mattered. and there is a sense that she did run a good campaign with real high water marks but the problem is her campaign excelled in the big set pieces. she had her meteoric rise, the democratic convention in chicago in august was a home run, she obviously cleaned donald trump's clock in their debate, but then there were no other set pieces. and the trump campaign smartly refused to give her another debate and that just deprived her of these big moments to introduce herself to the people of the country whose vote she was asking for because they were still getting to know her. i would say the last thing, joe, the one thing even the most senior folks in the harris campaign do view as a misstep was when she appeared on "the view" and was asked point-blank how would you differentiate your policies from joe biden and she didn't have an answer. she eventually got one a few weeks later but that was a moment where she had a moment to differentiate herself from a president who is very much so under water in public polling and she wasn't able to.

>> walking a fine line between respecting joe biden and separating herself. just a few numbers for people who are just waking up this morning on the west coast. according to our exit poll donald trump won among latino voters 45%. he didn't win overall, but he earned the vote of 45% of latinos, a huge, huge number. latino men in particular were decisive. a note about that iowa poll we talked so much about the last few days that had kamala harris up by three points, donald trump right now winning iowa by 13 points. >> it's just unbelievable. >> so there's -- >> unbelievable. >> donny, i was looking deep into our exit poll. we talk about young voters, first-time voters. in 2020 joe biden won first time voters 64-32, young people, first chance to vote or people who hadn't voted before. donald trump last night won first-time voters by 9 points, a swing of almost 40 points. so much in these numbers to sift through but at the end of the day donald trump grew his

margins in almost every county where he won, he won in places people were shocked to see him win, counties around new jersey and new york and illinois. just an overwhelming victory. >> i saw a lot of it with my friends' kids, college kids, graduated college, early 20s, first-time voters. i go back to what i said earlier to them, he was going to solve their problem and i think particularly for young male voters. the strength, his strength, he's going to fix it, he's going to solve it, i don't care about anything else. and i also think a lot of young people are also fed up with very super progressive attitudes. i think -- i think the democrats, joe, going back to your initial question, you may disagree with this, i think they need to move to the center. >> what does that mean, though? when you say they need to move to the center? are you saying they should not support trans people? let's just be specific because that's what the ads are doing. so if the analysis and the immediate aftermath is they have to move to the center, i mean, what is the center? because i disagree that that is it, but i want to hear what is the center?

because you're not the only person to say that. the democrats have been in my phone this morning. >> the center are the people i described before. i'm not even talking about an issue, we can talk about issues. the people who bounce back and forth, who play between the 45 yard lines, that tends to wins elections. if you look historically where it is, that's my feeling and we can agree to disagree. >> we also have with us u.s. special correspondent for bbc news katty kay and staff writer at "the atlantic" tom nichols. tom, you argue for "the atlantic" that democracy is not over. i'm going to get to that in just a moment. i first want to read liz cheney's statement on the results of this election. and she says -- she tweeted this out -- our nation's democratic system functioned last night and we have a new president-elect. all americans are bound, whether we like the outcome or not, to accept the results of our elections. we now have a special responsibility as citizens of the greatest nation on earth to do everything we can to support

and defend our constitution, preserve the rule of law and ensure that our institutions hold over these coming four years. citizens across this country, our courts, members of the press and those serving in our federal, state and local governments must now be the guardrails of democracy. tom, your thoughts on the possibility that that can happen. >> well, strangely enough, i think i'm glad that trump won an outright majority because i don't think the country could have taken one more election where the electoral college produced this kind of freak outcome of the loser of the popular vote becoming the president. this is clarity now. you know, donny made the point about not walking up to people and, you know, getting in their face, but i think it's -- on this we can say this is a clear

choice. this is what you, the american -- 51% of the american people wanted. this isn't an accident. it's not the russians, it's not some fluke. this is a choice and the american people have made a choice. he is the legitimately elected president of the united states. i think cheney -- what cheney said was absolutely right. what she said at the end of their statement, i echoed in what i put out this morning saying now if you really care about democracy, you care about what happens in courts, in state houses, in the federal civil service, in the military, you know, these institutions are all still there and they all require protecting. but i think one of the things that i'm really concerned about is that -- and i've been -- and i actually had been having a bad feeling about this election for a while. it was cemented when i was in pennsylvania about a week ago and i had a long conversation with a trump voter, where i came

to realize that there was almost nothing -- this postmortem we have all been going through about what biden could have done or harris could have done or walz or shapiro, i'm not sure anything could have been done because i think there's something that's been changed out there in america that's really concerning. >> right. >> but i think the notion that these institutions will now all fall in january is wrong, but i think people have ignored that they have elected a man who has made it clear that he is basically lawless, that he doesn't -- he has no loyalty to the constitution and i think, you know, after the election wears off this might start occurring to people again and the only way to protect it is going to be in all of those intermediate and state and local and federal institutions that all need protection now. >> you know, katty, tom brings up a great point about the fact that there is a clear choice

now, that donald trump did win with the majority of the vote and now it's going to be up to him and the republicans to run government over the next two years and if they don't run it well, that's why we have midterm elections and we've been talking this morning, there's a constant back and forth and back and forth in american politics and chances are very good that we will see the same thing again two years from now. >> yeah, american voters proved themselves always very capable of putting a check on somebody they feel they've gone too far. one of the interesting things in the data that came out is that even people who felt he was too extreme still voted for him, which suggests they don't believe some of the more extreme things he said he's going to do. so whether he actually does remake the nature of the courts, remakes -- politicizes the american government in the way he's suggested he's going to do,

he has the tools to do it looks like and if he gets the house he will have power unfettered for two years and he's made it pretty clear that this is what he wants to do, make a government in his image that will do the policies, enact the policies that he wants them to. so let's see if he gets there. he wants to. will the american people check him? will the courts check him? this is going to be a very turbulent couple of years for america and very turbulent couple of years for the rest of the world watching america. >> you know, willie, tom also, i think tom brings up a great point about talking to that trump voter in pennsylvania. of course, we spent time leading up to the election looking at the things that donald trump was saying, that seemed to break constitutional norms, political norms, basic standards and values. this morning we are talking about the democrats could have done, should have done, would have done. but tom is right, sometimes when

you talk to trump voters, and i know a lot of them, they're trump voters and you can talk to them for 30 minutes and you can show them chapter and verse of what he said and it really doesn't matter. and that's family members, that's friends that i've known from, you know, the time i was six years old, it just doesn't matter. again, i think it's really important the democrats look and see what happened, not specifically because of donald trump, but because they're losing races in the senate, they're losing races in the house. this isn't like a one-off, right? this is a democratic party that is only 32% of americans identify with. >> yeah, there's going to be a lot of soul searching about how to move forward in the democratic party. i would add one other issue here, obviously abortion rights, reproductive rights, were so central to 2022, expected to be, and they were last night, but a lot of the people in the states that voted to enshrine abortion

rights into constitutions in almost everywhere save florida, and, by the way, even in florida it got 57% of the vote, but just didn't reach a 60% threshold that it needed to get. a majority of people in florida wanted to enshrine t but a lot of those people who voted to support abortion rights in their state also voted for donald trump, which is a hard thing to wrap your head around when you consider that donald trump of course put the three supreme court justices on the court who overturned roe versus wade. they want abortion rights but also want donald trump. interesting piece of the story last night there. tom nichols, let's talk about the world a little bit. you've been on our show so many times explaining various conflicts and dynamics around the world. if you are president zelenskyy this morning, if you are a member of nato this morning, if you are a leader in taiwan this morning, how are you feeling? >> i think you're feeling like the bad guys are going to win

anywhere that they decide to take on the democracies because the united states is about to be awol as leader of the free world. i mean, we're basically giving up that job and trump -- you know, it's interesting you pointed out earlier how many voters said, well, he doesn't really mean that. the thing about trump is every time someone says he doesn't really mean x, y or z he doubles down and says that's exactly what i mean. this is exactly what i'm talking about. i think one of the things you're going to see with europe, i mean, european leaders have said, you elected him once, that was concerning, but electing him twice, that's not -- that's not a fluke. and i think you're going to see the russians, i mean, who were clearly attacking our system last night, the russians are going to be very happy about this, and i think that, you know, you're going to see other countries in the world starting to feel like they have to make arrangements of some kind in the absence of the united states,

and that never works out well, because the united states can't simply take a vacation from being a super power, but that's what trump keeps promising. part of his appeal, and, again, i will go back to -- i'm not sure what the democrats could have done about this because the democrats -- symone asked about what does it look like to be a centrist? the foreign policy aspect of kamala harris' campaign could have been written by mitt romney. i'm sorry, but there wasn't anything else she could have said in that space and the fact is people just don't care. americans just don't think about the world. they're not -- these are not the american voters of 30 or 40 years ago. this is a very transactional electorate. i will vote for you, you give me stuff. you bring down the price of eggs and the price of gas and you will have my vote, and all the rest of the stuff i just don't care. i heard that many times, i'm sure everybody who has talked to trump voters heard that many times. i just don't care about any of

that other stuff. literally they block their ears on all the other things. >> yeah, "the atlantic's" tom nichols, thank you very much. his new piece is available to read online now. we appreciate it. donny, okay -- >> it's going to be okay. it's going to be okay, right, joe? >> well, yeah. >> it's going to be -- everybody take a deep breath. >> i think what liz cheney wrote this morning is very important. everybody has a job to do, has a job to do to uphold guardrails of american democracy and it's all pretty stunning, but it is -- it's here and it's important for everybody to take a deep look inside and figure out what happened. >> that's it. >> donny deutsch, thank you very much. coming up, the stock market is rallying this morning on the news of donald trump's victory. cnbc's andrew ross sorkin joins us straight ahead with wall street's reaction to the election. "morning joe" will be right

back. ng joe" will be right back here you go. is there anyway to get a better price on this? have you checked singlecare? before i pick up my prescription at the pharmacy, i always check the singlecare price. it's quick, easy, and totally free to use. singlecare can literally beat my insurance copay. go to singlecare.com and start saving today.

everybody up here is very special, but the trump -- who did you say? >> oh, let me tell you, we have a new star. elon. donald trump reacting to supporters last night sharing their enthusiasm about billionaire elon musk who appears to be another big winner on election night. meanwhile, wall street is sharing that sentiment, so far surging this morning on news of trump's victory. let's bring in andrew ross sorkin, he is the co-canker of cnbc's "squawk box." when you came on set you had talked about an ignatius quote that struck you, i wanted to read it for our viewers. there is a conversation on the "washington post" opinion page titled "where did kamala harris'

campaign go wrong"? and this is what david ignatius wrote in part, the presidential election is a character test for the candidates, but also for the country, and this election makes me realize how little i understand the american character in 2024. >> yeah. no, i think it's a real question and on a morning like this, you know, to the extent that we are all trying to be introspective and want the country to move forward, trying to understand some of these issues, we've been talking a lot, and i've been talking on this broadcast a lot about ceos and whether they measure character and leadership as one and policies as a separate issue and whether the character of former president trump now our next president was disqualifying and clearly this country has said it is not disqualifying, it is something else and that there is a frustration and an anger almost about the last four years that we've lived through. i think that to some degree has to be the lesson we talk about, the flaws of kamala harris.

i'm waking up talking all sorts of people in the business community trying to understand what this means and what it means going forward. also just about leadership more generally and i will say one thing that was interesting late last night i was talking to a ceo who you all know, i will not name because it was a background conversation, who should say, andrew, you come on -- he actually watches this show, "morning joe," and you sermonize about the morality of character and what ceos should be doing. he said part of my job -- and this is a democrat -- is to read the room. he said i feel like i've been reading the country for the last month and a half and i felt it was going this way. part of me that thought if you can't fight city hall you can't fight the american people. i thought that was very profound to some degree. there are some people who will be disappointed with a comment like that, but i do think there is something to that sentiment in terms of why when folks have

asked why businesspeople haven't spoken up. i'm not sure it's all about the wallet and the pocketbook, per se, although i will say the stock market this morning is up 3% on the back of this news. you can look at tesla, by the way, elon musk who is going to play a huge role in this administration, at least that's the perception, that stock up 15%. stocks like rivian who competes with it, down, bitcoin up in a big way, the djt stock, that one up as well, that one is hard to square given actually trump's ties to elon, you think either x is going to win or truth social would win, but it's unlikely that both will win and both are not doing so well at least on the economic end of it, although i think x has clearly reached a real audience. >> andrew, around that broad market number, we showed that the dow was up i think 1,300 or so at last check. what's going into that? what is the market saying about donald trump as president, policy-wise what do they think happens from here? >> the first piece is they're

thinking personnel is policy and they're thinking in terms of both executive orders and the regulatory state, so who is going to run the sec, they think that gensler is going to be booted and there will be somebody friendly to crypto, friendly to business in that role. they think that lena khan is not going to have her job at the ftc anymore. all of the mergers that have been on hold for the last four years they think move ahead. so there's some of those component parts in this. they also seem to think that the tariff policy that we talk about and we've talked about almost endlessly, is not something that's fully going to come to fruition. that it really is going to be used as a negotiating cajole against other countries. we will see about that. and then the biggie is going to be tax policy. this last tax policy in 2025 and now there's probably a better chance for that policy to at

least stay where it is, if not shift even more favorable ways potentially towards the rich, we will see, but maybe in other ways. >> certainly if republicans get the house they signaled one of the first things they will do is make that tax cut permanent. katty, earlier in the show we were talking about how the election is being perceived overseas in terms of some of the global conflicts n terms of alliances. let's talk about on the economic level here, a read, if you will, on the global markets, how they're perceiving the trump victory but also what comes next? there is the talk of tariffs and potentially trade wars. we now how tumultuous these transatlantic economic ties were the first time for donald trump and he's promising even more so now. >> yeah, i'm looking at the european stock markets they are all higher, dollar and bitcoin as well soaring over there, too. so investors clearly thinking this is going to be good for investments and different asset classes. i guess the way the europeans are looking at this apart from the security implications and i think that's the first thing

that europeans would think of if donald trump is winning is what is going to happen to ukraine, what's going to happen to nato. i heard peter baker saying that donald trump may well pull out to nato or that he's not going to honor article 5 which basically tills nato. that's the biggest concern for europe. on the economic front there has not been that much difference between joe biden and donald trump when it comes to protectionism. i think there was a realization that america is moving inexorably whether it was kamala harris or donald trump in a second term in a protectionist way. the election results bears that out. would there have been more tariffs on europe because america first seems to mean europe last, there may be more hits on european allies than other countries, but then you're going to have areas of the world that are going to welcome this. you look at narendra modi, he has a good relationship with donald trump, countries in asia

which have been remarkably calm about the prospect of donald trump being reelected, saying, look, we can do business with him, we've figured out a way to work with him and are fine being reelected. the area of the world that is particularly concerned are those western european democracies and they're particularly concerned at the moment because of the situation in ukraine. >> absolutely. and, symone, just as we -- were you jumping in? >> i just wanted to make one comment which is i think that the business community always likes -- or likes to say that they like gridlock. there may not be gridlock depending on whether you think the house is where it lands and so the question is what is going to be the governor on some of these economic proposals in terms of economic spending and the like, and the only thing that i can see out there really is actually oddly enough going to be the bond market. that's something we should all be watching in terms of if we have this sort of oprah style -- and i love oprah, but oprah style economy where there is a lot of give a ways, a got of give a ways, no taxes on anything, where are you going to

get the money? the only thing that's going to prevent that from happening that may tell the folks in washington we don't want that is the investor class in the bond market saying, enough, we can't do it. >> okay. >> the -- america being raided by moody's and what that looks like, i mean, losing a aaa -- when a city loses a aaa bond rating it's a thing, and mayors lose their jobs. i worked for a mayor that lost the aaa bond rating and lost the election. so i know. look, i'm just like, okay, that's what the democrats are saying right now, it's like, okay, this idea that it was all going to be okay and the levers and guardrails, i don't know -- does the business community feel that because i don't? >> i'm not suggesting. >> oh, you are not. others are. >> journalists, we are all professional skeptics, i think it's our responsibility to be skeptical. i think that investors are professional optimists. we have to always remember they're professional optimists. and, therefore, they can be wrong.

>> yeah. >> and we are going to have to keep our eyes on all this have and keep our eyes on all the promises made and not just whether the promises get kept or not but what happens on the other side of those promises. >> cnbc's andrew ross sorkin, thank you very much. >> thanks, andrew. and coming up, nbc's sahil kapur and the "washington post" jackie alemany join us straight ahead with a closer look at some of the key congressional races. "morning joe" will be right back. a bend with a bump in your erection might be painful, embarassing, difficult to talk about, and could be peyronie's disease or pd, a real medical condition that urologists can diagnose and have been treating for more than 8 years with xiaflex®, the only fda-approved nonsurgical treatment for appropriate men with pd. along with daily gentle penile stretching and straightening exercises, xiaflex has been proven to help gradually reduce the bend. don't receive if the treatment area involves your urethra; or if you're allergic to any of the ingredients. may cause serious side effects, including: penile fracture or other serious injury during an erection and severe allergic reactions,

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this morning nbc news projects republicans will regain control of the united states senate, picking up seats in ohio, west virginia and just this morning montana where jon tester has lost his seat. we're waiting for the results of several u.s. house races, at this time still too early to say which party will control the lower chamber, but republicans so far have flipped five seats while democrats have flipped two. joining us now nbc news senior national political reporter

sahil kapur and congressional investigations reporter for the "washington post" jamie alemany. good morning. big picture first on where the snalt is with a few of the races very tight and still to be decide this had morning. >> absolutely. we know donald trump is headed back to the white house with a republican senate majority, but we don't know the size of that senate majority. 52 is the minimum, right now there are five seats, senate seats in purple states, the key purple states we've been talking about all along including the blue wall, including nevada, arizona. too close to call. i think democrats appear positioned to win more than they lose there, but it's very plausible that republicans could pad that majority a little bit. what does that mean? that means donald trump pretty much gets his pick on cabinet choices, personnel to stack his administration, judicial nominees. this is a huge one to watch, the supreme court, there are a couple of conservative there ar couple of conservative justices on retirement watch who republican senators fully expect to consider retiring under trump and the republican senate. >> this move was to republicans in taking over the senate was

widely expected, i think. any of these particular races surprising to you? >> well, the sweep is certainly surprising. it's not surprising that they're winning montana, that's a red state where john tester had been defying gravity. it's not surprising they're winning ohio, which has swung bright red. sher rod brown had been defying gravity. the blue wall states, wisconsin, michigan, that i think is coming as a shock to democrats. >> let me ask you about one more race because there was a lot of attention and hope placed by democrats against ted cruz in the state of texas. that turns out not to have been even close. >> that's right. cruz is going to win that one going away, and the single biggest reason, latino men. this is a story of the entire presidential race as well. donald trump has made huge gains with latino men. we saw that in texas as well. we know democrats have gained in the suburbs and among white college graduates. but they have lost so much

ground with latinos that texas is remaining solid red. >> i think you're right, it's a big part of this. jackie, let's take a look at what you're looking at, specifically in the house. >> right. the house is still too close to call. there were some positive indications early last night, a district that we were all closely watching, virginia's seventh district, to replace spamberger had, again, an early positive indication when they called the race for eugene vindman, but that quickly dissipated, as overnight we have not seen wins for democrats as were expected in places like nebraska, iowa, and even california. those races, though, some of those, at least in california and in new york, are still a little bit too close to call. there were two seats that were flipped by democrats in new york. that was largely expected. that's with mark molinaro and brandon williams, largely due to redistricting issues. but republicans have made gains, notably, in michigan and in

pennsylvania, in seats that were held by democrats that would be really crucial to them holding on to the majority if the house manages to maintain the majority, donald trump is going to come into his presidency with extreme legislative power, along with a plan to obviously wield expansive power. there are going to be few guardrails. >> on that point, when trump won last time in 2016 and came into 2017, also with a united republican house and senate, but there was some skepticism among republicans. there were republicans in the senate, and even some in the house, who were willing at times to stand up to him. those people are largely gone. senator mccain is not there anymore, senator romney leaving, liz cheney. the list goes on and on. talk to us about how when donald trump is back in power, he will have a very trumpified republican congress. >> it's true, a lot of those

detractors who voted to impeach him have all retired or been ousted. there are maybe, i think, a handful, less than ten fingers, maybe, that we can count of people who still openly criticize donald trump. sahil ran through some of the ease that trump is going to have when it comes to confirmations and judicial appointments, being able to appoint trump loyalists to the positions that are going to be important to cruise through the bureaucracy in a way he wants to to implement some of these extremist plans and policies and proposals. that being said, there are a number of republicans, big trump supporters, people who are going to potentially be in leadership positions who already don't support some of the threats that trump had made. notably when it comes to tariffs, i know that andrew lightly touched on some of this, but people like john thune and john cornyn, they don't support tariffs across the board.

that is going to be a battle that is going to be another cause of republican infighting we're going to see. also, there are a number of republicans in the house especially that are still going to be hanging on to districts that are democratic, that are swingy, where biden policies are taking effect. there's big investments from the ira to the chips act, and i think there's going to be a lot of infighting with regards to repealing those policies as well. >> sahil, as you mentioned, latino men, latino voters as a whole, huge story last night. another part of the story, as you write this morning, abortion, though obviously a very salient issue, was not decisive in the way that the harris campaign thought it might be. what else stands out to you as you look at these results? >> abortion was not the panacea that some democrats were hoping it would be. there was a real hope that there would swamp everything and be the decisive issue. it turns out it was important, it did move the dial and help kamala harris and democrats, but it was one of several issues, along with democracy, which also

helped democrats. but the economy was the single biggest issue and that's where voters who were worried about that overwhelmingly voted for donald trump. top line, you have to -- you can't get away from the fact this is a historic rebuke to the democratic party. the first time in 20 years they're going to lose the popular vote. this is not just donald trump getting elected because of the quirk of the electoral college. this is americans choosing him, a majority of the country choosing him. democrats will have a lot of self-reflecting to do about how that happened. there's a double-digit swing among latinos, young white men, including donald trump was able to flatten the gender gap quite a bit. then, of course, there's political gravity catching up to democrats on the senate level. >> thank you both very much for being on this morning. wow, what a morning. that does it for us this morning. we'll see you tomorrow at 6:00 a.m. ana cabrera and jose diaz-balart pick up the coverage after a quick final break.

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